Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand
Abstract
Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical modeling on past and present water use, we project domestic water demand in the context of four climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as part of the their Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We compare 2010 demand to projections of domestic water demand for the years 2030, 2060 and 2090 for the four SRES scenarios. Results indicate that the number of counties exceeding fifty percent or greater demand over 2010 levels increases through 2090 for two of the scenarios and plateaus around 2050 for the other two. Counties experiencing the largest increases in water demand are concentrated in the states of California, Texas, and isolated portions of the Mid-West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Closer examination of the spatial distribution of high demand counties reveals that they are typically found near or adjacent to metropolitan centers, potentially placing greater stress on already taxed systems. Identifying these counties allows for targeted adaptive management and policies, economic incentives, and legislation tomore »
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; USEPA
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1378377
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1623698
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0014664
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Landscape and Urban Planning
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Landscape and Urban Planning Journal Volume: 158 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0169-2046
- Country of Publication:
- Netherlands
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; water demand; climate; sustainability; resilience
Citation Formats
Pickard, Brian R., Nash, Maliha, Baynes, Jeremy, and Mehaffey, Megan. Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand. Netherlands: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.07.014.
Pickard, Brian R., Nash, Maliha, Baynes, Jeremy, & Mehaffey, Megan. Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand. Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.07.014
Pickard, Brian R., Nash, Maliha, Baynes, Jeremy, and Mehaffey, Megan. Wed .
"Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand". Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.07.014.
@article{osti_1378377,
title = {Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand},
author = {Pickard, Brian R. and Nash, Maliha and Baynes, Jeremy and Mehaffey, Megan},
abstractNote = {Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical modeling on past and present water use, we project domestic water demand in the context of four climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as part of the their Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We compare 2010 demand to projections of domestic water demand for the years 2030, 2060 and 2090 for the four SRES scenarios. Results indicate that the number of counties exceeding fifty percent or greater demand over 2010 levels increases through 2090 for two of the scenarios and plateaus around 2050 for the other two. Counties experiencing the largest increases in water demand are concentrated in the states of California, Texas, and isolated portions of the Mid-West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Closer examination of the spatial distribution of high demand counties reveals that they are typically found near or adjacent to metropolitan centers, potentially placing greater stress on already taxed systems. Identifying these counties allows for targeted adaptive management and policies, economic incentives, and legislation to be focused towards locations that are potentially the most vulnerable.},
doi = {10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.07.014},
journal = {Landscape and Urban Planning},
number = C,
volume = 158,
place = {Netherlands},
year = {Wed Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Wed Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.07.014
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.07.014
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Cited by: 6 works
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Figures / Tables:
Fig. 1: United States Environmental Protection Agency Level I Ecoregions for the conterminous United States with US counties overlaid. Ecoregions divide North America into 10 broad categories highlighting major ecological components of an ecosystem.
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Figures / Tables found in this record:
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