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Title: Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We also attribute the observed decline to increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. Furthermore, the pause in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [3];  [6]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States), Earth Sciences Division; Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia)
  2. Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia); Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  3. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Dickson ACT (Australia)
  4. Clark Univ., Worcester, MA (United States)
  5. Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia); Northwest A & F Univ., Yanling (China)
  6. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1377575
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; FG02-04ER63917; FG02-04ER63911; SC0006708
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; attribution; carbon cycle; climate-change ecology

Citation Formats

Keenan, Trevor F., Prentice, I. Colin, Canadell, Josep G., Williams, Christopher A., Wang, Han, Raupach, Michael, and Collatz, G. James. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1038/ncomms13428.
Keenan, Trevor F., Prentice, I. Colin, Canadell, Josep G., Williams, Christopher A., Wang, Han, Raupach, Michael, & Collatz, G. James. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13428
Keenan, Trevor F., Prentice, I. Colin, Canadell, Josep G., Williams, Christopher A., Wang, Han, Raupach, Michael, and Collatz, G. James. Tue . "Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13428. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377575.
@article{osti_1377575,
title = {Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake},
author = {Keenan, Trevor F. and Prentice, I. Colin and Canadell, Josep G. and Williams, Christopher A. and Wang, Han and Raupach, Michael and Collatz, G. James},
abstractNote = {Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We also attribute the observed decline to increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. Furthermore, the pause in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms13428},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = ,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Nov 08 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Tue Nov 08 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}

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Cited by: 266 works
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journal, January 2019

  • Lauvaux, Thomas; Díaz-Isaac, Liza I.; Bocquet, Marc
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 18
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-12007-2019

Global carbon budgets estimated from atmospheric O 2 ∕N 2 and CO 2 observations in the western Pacific region over a 15-year period
journal, January 2019

  • Tohjima, Yasunori; Mukai, Hitoshi; Machida, Toshinobu
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-9269-2019

On the diurnal, weekly, and seasonal cycles and annual trends in atmospheric CO 2 at Mount Zugspitze, Germany, during 1981–2016
journal, January 2019

  • Yuan, Ye; Ries, Ludwig; Petermeier, Hannes
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-999-2019

Legacies of past land use have a stronger effect on forest carbon exchange than future climate change in a temperate forest landscape
journal, January 2018


The biomass burning contribution to climate–carbon-cycle feedback
journal, January 2018

  • Harrison, Sandy P.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brovkin, Victor
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-663-2018

A Model-Based Evaluation of the Inverse Gaussian Transit-Time Distribution Method for Inferring Anthropogenic Carbon Storage in the Ocean
journal, March 2018

  • He, Yan-Chun; Tjiputra, Jerry; Langehaug, Helene R.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 123, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jc013504

Nitrogen oligotrophication in northern hardwood forests
journal, May 2018


Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks
journal, September 2018


Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink
journal, January 2020

  • Tagesson, Torbern; Schurgers, Guy; Horion, Stéphanie
  • Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 4, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-1090-0

Lower land-use emissions responsible for increased net land carbon sink during the slow warming period
journal, August 2018


Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink
journal, May 2019

  • DeVries, Tim; Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrews, Oliver
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900371116

Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles—a review
journal, July 2019

  • Gentine, Pierre; Green, Julia K.; Guérin, Marceau
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d6

A successful prediction of the record CO 2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño
journal, October 2018

  • Betts, Richard A.; Jones, Chris D.; Knight, Jeff. R.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 373, Issue 1760
  • DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0301

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures
journal, May 2019

  • Carnicer, Jofre; Domingo‐Marimon, Cristina; Ninyerola, Miquel
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14664

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO 2 budget
journal, December 2019

  • Kondo, Masayuki; Patra, Prabir K.; Sitch, Stephen
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14917

Trend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO2
journal, January 2019

  • Bennedsen, Mikkel; Hillebrand, Eric; Koopman, Siem Jan
  • Biogeosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 18
  • DOI: 10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production
journal, January 2020

  • Stocker, Benjamin D.; Wang, Han; Smith, Nicholas G.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020

Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia
text, January 2018


Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth
text, January 2019

  • Yuan, Wenping; Zheng, Yi; Piao, Shilong
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science
  • DOI: 10.7892/boris.141545

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests
journal, February 2018

  • McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina
  • New Phytologist, Vol. 219, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1111/nph.15027

Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth
journal, August 2019


Global atmospheric CO 2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate
journal, January 2019

  • Gaubert, Benjamin; Stephens, Britton B.; Basu, Sourish
  • Biogeosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/bg-16-117-2019

Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints
journal, January 2019

  • Winkler, Alexander J.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Brovkin, Victor
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-501-2019

Increasing interannual variability of global vegetation greenness
journal, November 2019


Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles-a review
text, January 2019


The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes
journal, September 2017

  • Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
  • Ecological Monographs, Vol. 87, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1272

Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies
journal, July 2017

  • Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a19

Interannual variability of ecosystem carbon exchange: From observation to prediction
journal, September 2017

  • Niu, Shuli; Fu, Zheng; Luo, Yiqi
  • Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 26, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1111/geb.12633

Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones
text, January 2019


Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate
text, January 2018


Towards Solar Methanol: Past, Present, and Future
journal, February 2019

  • Tountas, Athanasios A.; Peng, Xinyue; Tavasoli, Alexandra V.
  • Advanced Science, Vol. 6, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1002/advs.201801903

Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia
journal, March 2018


Greening of the land surface in the world’s cold regions consistent with recent warming
journal, August 2018


A global moderate resolution dataset of gross primary production of vegetation for 2000–2016
journal, October 2017


Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
journal, August 2018

  • Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 33
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Diverse fen plant communities enhance carbon-related multifunctionality, but do not mitigate negative effects of drought
journal, October 2017

  • Robroek, Bjorn J. M.; Jassey, Vincent E. J.; Beltman, Boudewijn
  • Royal Society Open Science, Vol. 4, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1098/rsos.170449

Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth
journal, August 2019


Trends and Drivers of Change of Pastoral Beef Production Systems in a Mediterranean-Temperate Climate Zone of Chile
journal, December 2019

  • Toro-Mujica, Paula; Vera, Raúl; Vargas-Bello-Pérez, Einar
  • Animals, Vol. 9, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.3390/ani9121135