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Title: Role of CO 2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis

Abstract

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (F TA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global F TA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO 2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO 2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergencemore » over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > F TA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > F TA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R 2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO 2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [3];  [4];  [6];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14]
  1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg, Potsdam (Germany)
  2. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  4. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences
  5. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan). Center for Global Environmental Research
  6. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
  7. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
  8. Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan). Global Environment Program Research & Development Division
  9. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division
  10. Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Inst. on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology
  11. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Inst.
  12. Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA CNRS UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
  13. Met Office, Exeter (United States). Hadley Centre
  14. Max Planck Society, Jena (Germany). Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Biogeochemical Integration Dept.
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1377492
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1406826
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-118615
Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189; ark:/13030/qt9tq4z262
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Biogeosciences (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online); Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 17; Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Zhao, Fang, Zeng, Ning, Asrar, Ghassem, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul, Kalnay, Eugenia, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D., Poulter, Ben, Rafique, Rashid, Sitch, Stephen, Shu, Shijie, Stocker, Beni, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, and Zaehle, Sonke. Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016.
Zhao, Fang, Zeng, Ning, Asrar, Ghassem, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul, Kalnay, Eugenia, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D., Poulter, Ben, Rafique, Rashid, Sitch, Stephen, Shu, Shijie, Stocker, Beni, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, & Zaehle, Sonke. Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis. United States. doi:10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016.
Zhao, Fang, Zeng, Ning, Asrar, Ghassem, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul, Kalnay, Eugenia, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D., Poulter, Ben, Rafique, Rashid, Sitch, Stephen, Shu, Shijie, Stocker, Beni, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, and Zaehle, Sonke. Wed . "Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis". United States. doi:10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377492.
@article{osti_1377492,
title = {Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis},
author = {Zhao, Fang and Zeng, Ning and Asrar, Ghassem and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Ito, Akihiko and Jain, Atul and Kalnay, Eugenia and Kato, Etsushi and Koven, Charles D. and Poulter, Ben and Rafique, Rashid and Sitch, Stephen and Shu, Shijie and Stocker, Beni and Viovy, Nicolas and Wiltshire, Andy and Zaehle, Sonke},
abstractNote = {We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > FTA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > FTA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016},
journal = {Biogeosciences (Online)},
number = 17,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {9}
}

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