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Title: Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year

Abstract

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyze daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [3]
  1. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States)
  2. The Univ. of Adelaide, SA (Australia)
  3. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States). North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1377074
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
PLoS ONE
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of Science
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Summer; Winter; Climate change; Climate modeling; United States; Temperature analysis; Autumn; Seasons

Citation Formats

Dodds, Peter Sheridan, Mitchell, Lewis, Reagan, Andrew J., Danforth, Christopher M., and Shaman, Jeffrey. Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0154184.
Dodds, Peter Sheridan, Mitchell, Lewis, Reagan, Andrew J., Danforth, Christopher M., & Shaman, Jeffrey. Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year. United States. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0154184.
Dodds, Peter Sheridan, Mitchell, Lewis, Reagan, Andrew J., Danforth, Christopher M., and Shaman, Jeffrey. Wed . "Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year". United States. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0154184. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377074.
@article{osti_1377074,
title = {Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year},
author = {Dodds, Peter Sheridan and Mitchell, Lewis and Reagan, Andrew J. and Danforth, Christopher M. and Shaman, Jeffrey},
abstractNote = {Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyze daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0154184},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
number = 5,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {5}
}

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