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Title: High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for themore » application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Technical Univ. of Crete, Chania (Greece)
  2. Technical Univ. of Crete, Chania (Greece); McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
603864
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online); Journal Volume: 20; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Research Org:
Office of Scientific and Technical Information, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1375769