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Title: Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

Abstract

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important formore » simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [1];  [2]
  1. Universities Space Research Association, Colubmia, MD (United States); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Science System and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States)
  4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1375409
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 16; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Strode, Sarah A., Worden, Helen M., Damon, Megan, Douglass, Anne R., Duncan, Bryan N., Emmons, Louisa K., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Manyin, Michael, Oman, Luke D., Rodriguez, Jose M., Strahan, Susan E., and Tilmes, Simone. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016.
Strode, Sarah A., Worden, Helen M., Damon, Megan, Douglass, Anne R., Duncan, Bryan N., Emmons, Louisa K., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Manyin, Michael, Oman, Luke D., Rodriguez, Jose M., Strahan, Susan E., & Tilmes, Simone. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models. United States. doi:10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016.
Strode, Sarah A., Worden, Helen M., Damon, Megan, Douglass, Anne R., Duncan, Bryan N., Emmons, Louisa K., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Manyin, Michael, Oman, Luke D., Rodriguez, Jose M., Strahan, Susan E., and Tilmes, Simone. Fri . "Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models". United States. doi:10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375409.
@article{osti_1375409,
title = {Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models},
author = {Strode, Sarah A. and Worden, Helen M. and Damon, Megan and Douglass, Anne R. and Duncan, Bryan N. and Emmons, Louisa K. and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Manyin, Michael and Oman, Luke D. and Rodriguez, Jose M. and Strahan, Susan E. and Tilmes, Simone},
abstractNote = {Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)},
number = 11,
volume = 16,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {6}
}

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Cited by: 9 works
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