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Title: Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [3] ;  [2] ;  [4]
  1. Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China); Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan (China)
  2. Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China)
  3. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
  4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing (China)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Advances in Meteorology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 2017; Journal ID: ISSN 1687-9309
Research Org:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC); National Key Basic Research Program of China; USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Beijing; SPEI; conditional probability; copulas; meteorological drought; precipitation
OSTI Identifier: