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Title: Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch between observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [3] ;  [2] ;  [4]
  1. Columbia Univ., and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)
  2. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
  3. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-723540
Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344; SC0014423; NNX14AB99A
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 30; Journal Issue: 13; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Research Org:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Precipitation; Satellite observations; Pattern detection; Seasonal cycle
OSTI Identifier:
1361945
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1438734