Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios
Abstract
The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amountmore »
- Authors:
-
- Abt Associates Inc., Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1358521
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-118327
Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277; 400408000
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 4; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; short-lived climate forcers; black carbon; Arctic climate; climate policy
Citation Formats
Wobus, Cameron, Flanner, Mark, Sarofim, Marcus C., Moura, Maria Cecilia P., and Smith, Steven J. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/2016EF000361.
Wobus, Cameron, Flanner, Mark, Sarofim, Marcus C., Moura, Maria Cecilia P., & Smith, Steven J. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000361
Wobus, Cameron, Flanner, Mark, Sarofim, Marcus C., Moura, Maria Cecilia P., and Smith, Steven J. Tue .
"Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000361. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1358521.
@article{osti_1358521,
title = {Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios},
author = {Wobus, Cameron and Flanner, Mark and Sarofim, Marcus C. and Moura, Maria Cecilia P. and Smith, Steven J.},
abstractNote = {The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.},
doi = {10.1002/2016EF000361},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 6,
volume = 4,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 17 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Tue May 17 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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