skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

Abstract

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amountmore » of short-term Arctic warming.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4]
  1. Abt Associates Inc., Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. (United States)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1358521
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-118327
Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277; 400408000
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 4; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; short-lived climate forcers; black carbon; Arctic climate; climate policy

Citation Formats

Wobus, Cameron, Flanner, Mark, Sarofim, Marcus C., Moura, Maria Cecilia P., and Smith, Steven J. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016EF000361.
Wobus, Cameron, Flanner, Mark, Sarofim, Marcus C., Moura, Maria Cecilia P., & Smith, Steven J. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios. United States. doi:10.1002/2016EF000361.
Wobus, Cameron, Flanner, Mark, Sarofim, Marcus C., Moura, Maria Cecilia P., and Smith, Steven J. Tue . "Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios". United States. doi:10.1002/2016EF000361. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1358521.
@article{osti_1358521,
title = {Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios},
author = {Wobus, Cameron and Flanner, Mark and Sarofim, Marcus C. and Moura, Maria Cecilia P. and Smith, Steven J.},
abstractNote = {The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.},
doi = {10.1002/2016EF000361},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 6,
volume = 4,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {5}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 3 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Amplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe
journal, March 2016

  • Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Varma, V.; Riipinen, I.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2673

Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning
journal, December 2001

  • Andreae, M. O.; Merlet, P.
  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 15, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1029/2000GB001382

Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols
journal, January 1992


Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
journal, January 2013


Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow
journal, January 2007

  • Flanner, Mark G.; Zender, Charles S.; Randerson, James T.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue D11
  • DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008003

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes: ARCTIC LINKS TO MID-LATITUDE WEATHER
journal, March 2012

  • Francis, Jennifer A.; Vavrus, Stephen J.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051000

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos
journal, December 2003

  • Hansen, J.; Nazarenko, L.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 101, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2237157100

Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models
journal, September 2003


An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing
journal, August 2011


RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011


Disentangling the effects of CO 2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation
journal, November 2014

  • Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 46
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1415631111

Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers
journal, November 2015

  • Sand, M.; Berntsen, T. K.; von Salzen, K.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2880

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
journal, April 2015

  • Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C.
  • Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature14338

Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century
journal, March 2009

  • Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo473

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security
journal, January 2012


Near-term climate mitigation by short-lived forcers
journal, August 2013

  • Smith, S. J.; Mizrahi, A.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 35
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1308470110

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants
journal, January 2015


RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
journal, July 2011

  • Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.
  • Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4

Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009)
journal, January 2010

  • van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 23
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010

The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011


RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C
journal, August 2011

  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J.
  • Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers
    journal, July 2019

    • Stjern, Camilla Weum; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029726

    Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers
    journal, July 2019

    • Stjern, Camilla Weum; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029726