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Title: The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, butmore » could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [2]
  1. Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)
  2. Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0009988
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energies (Basel)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Energies (Basel); Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1996-1073
Publisher:
MDPI AG
Research Org:
Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS; shale gas; natural gas; supply curves; climate change mitigation; energy system analysis; energy scenarios; TIMES Integrated AssessmentModel (TIAM); fugitive methane emissions; energy economics
OSTI Identifier:
1358443

Few, Sheridan, Gambhir, Ajay, Napp, Tamaryn, Hawkes, Adam, Mangeon, Stephane, Bernie, Dan, and Lowe, Jason. The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.3390/en10020158.
Few, Sheridan, Gambhir, Ajay, Napp, Tamaryn, Hawkes, Adam, Mangeon, Stephane, Bernie, Dan, & Lowe, Jason. The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties. United States. doi:10.3390/en10020158.
Few, Sheridan, Gambhir, Ajay, Napp, Tamaryn, Hawkes, Adam, Mangeon, Stephane, Bernie, Dan, and Lowe, Jason. 2017. "The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties". United States. doi:10.3390/en10020158. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1358443.
@article{osti_1358443,
title = {The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties},
author = {Few, Sheridan and Gambhir, Ajay and Napp, Tamaryn and Hawkes, Adam and Mangeon, Stephane and Bernie, Dan and Lowe, Jason},
abstractNote = {There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.},
doi = {10.3390/en10020158},
journal = {Energies (Basel)},
number = 2,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {1}
}