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  • Accepted Manuscript: Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

Title: Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBV mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient inmore » reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-16-28585
Journal ID: ISSN 0022-5193
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Theoretical Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 423; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-5193
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
National Institutes of Health (NIH); USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; biological science; health economics; epidemiology; public policy; sexually transmitted infection
OSTI Identifier:
1358168