Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960

Smith, Doug M.; Allan, Richard P.; Coward, Andrew C.; Eade, Rosie; Hyder, Patrick; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G.; Palmer, Matthew D.; Roberts, Chris D.; Scaife, Adam A.

doi:10.1002/2014gl062669

Title: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960

Journal Article · 19 February 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062669 · OSTI ID:1354912

Smith, Doug M. ^[1]; Allan, Richard P. ^[2]; Coward, Andrew C. ^[3]; Eade, Rosie ^[1]; Hyder, Patrick ^[1]; Liu, Chunlei ^[2]; Loeb, Norman G. ^[4]; Palmer, Matthew D. ^[1]; Roberts, Chris D. ^[1]; Scaife, Adam A. ^[1]

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton UK
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States)

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21 W m^-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: GA01101; NE/K005480/1

OSTI ID:: 1354912

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 4; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 77 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (65)

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106	journal	February 2014
Changing Expendable Bathythermograph Fall Rates and Their Impact on Estimates of Thermosteric Sea Level Rise Wijffels, Susan E.; Willis, Josh; Domingues, Catia M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2290.1	journal	November 2008
Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013	journal	January 2013
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy Trenberth, Kevin E. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001	journal	October 2009
The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000-2013 on global mean temperature trends evaluated in the HadGEM2-ES climate model: Impact of modest volcanic eruptions on the global warming trends Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Jones, Gareth S. Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.471	journal	November 2013
An update on Earth's energy balance in light of the latest global observations Stephens, Graeme L.; Li, Juilin; Wild, Martin Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1580	journal	September 2012
Artifacts in variations of ocean heat content induced by the observation system changes: OHC ARTIFACTS BY OBSERVING SYSTEM CHANGE Cheng, Lijing; Zhu, Jiang Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061881	journal	October 2014
Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System Levitus, S. Science, Vol. 292, Issue 5515 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058154	journal	April 2001
Consistency of the current global ocean observing systems from an Argo perspective von Schuckmann, K.; Sallée, J. -B.; Chambers, D. Ocean Science, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014	journal	January 2014
Earth's energy imbalance and implications Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011	journal	January 2011
The Argo Program: Observing the Global Oceans with Profiling Floats Roemmich, Dean; Johnson, Gregory; Riser, Stephen Oceanography, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.36	journal	June 2009
Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets Purkey, Sarah G.; Johnson, Gregory C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1	journal	December 2010
Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled Huber, Markus; Knutti, Reto Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2228	journal	August 2014
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers Marzeion, B.; Jarosch, A. H.; Hofer, M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012	journal	January 2012
Estimating Annual Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Anomalies despite Irregular In Situ Ocean Sampling Lyman, John M.; Johnson, Gregory C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2259.1	journal	November 2008
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.; A., G. Science, Vol. 338, Issue 6111 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228102	journal	November 2012
Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Fasullo, John T. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 1, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229	journal	September 2011
Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Andreu-Burillo, Isabel Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1863	journal	April 2013
Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate Bellouin, Nicolas; Rae, Jamie; Jones, Andy Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016074	journal	January 2011
The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events Scaife, A. A.; Kucharski, F.; Folland, C. K. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0451-1	journal	August 2008
Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008: SEA-LEVEL AND ENERGY BUDGETS Church, John A.; White, Neil J.; Konikow, Leonard F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048794	journal	September 2011
Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming Durack, Paul J.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Landerer, Felix W. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2389	journal	October 2014
Importance of the deep ocean for estimating decadal changes in Earth's radiation balance: IMPORTANCE OF DEEP OCEAN Palmer, Matthew D.; McNeall, Douglas J.; Dunstone, Nick J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047835	journal	July 2011
Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model: SURFACE RESPONSE TO AEROSOL CHANGE Fyfe, J. C.; von Salzen, K.; Cole, J. N. S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50156	journal	February 2013
A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change: REVIEW OF OCEAN OBSERVATIONS Abraham, J. P.; Baringer, M.; Bindoff, N. L. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 51, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20022	journal	September 2013
Reconciling warming trends Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2105	journal	February 2014
An objective ocean temperature and salinity analysis using covariances from a global climate model Smith, Doug M.; Murphy, James M. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue C2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003172	journal	January 2007
A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments Goddard, L.; Kumar, A.; Solomon, A. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2	journal	August 2012
Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models Gupta, Alexander Sen; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Brown, Jaclyn N. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1	journal	November 2013
Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 65, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-009-0027-7	journal	June 2009
The Persistently Variable "Background" Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change Solomon, S.; Daniel, J. S.; Neely, R. R. Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6044 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206027	journal	July 2011
Robust warming of the global upper ocean Lyman, John M.; Good, Simon A.; Gouretski, Viktor V. Nature, Vol. 465, Issue 7296 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09043	journal	May 2010
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828	journal	April 2011
Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008 Kaufmann, R. K.; Kauppi, H.; Mann, M. L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 29 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102467108	journal	July 2011
Earth’s Energy Imbalance Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00294.1	journal	May 2014
High resolution global climate modelling; the UPSCALE project, a large simulation campaign Mizielinski, M. S.; Roberts, M. J.; Vidale, P. L. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-563-2014	journal	January 2014
Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation: GLOBAL WARMING BY SOLAR RADIATION Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037527	journal	April 2009
A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production Mantua, Nathan J.; Hare, Steven R.; Zhang, Yuan Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2	journal	June 1997
World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010: WORLD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT Levitus, S.; Antonov, J. I.; Boyer, T. P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106	journal	May 2012
Tracking Earth's Energy Trenberth, K. E.; Fasullo, J. T. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5976 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1187272	journal	April 2010
Is the climate warming or cooling? Easterling, David R.; Wehner, Michael F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037810	journal	January 2009
Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Céline; Painter, Jeffrey F. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098	journal	February 2014
Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content: SIGNALS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Källén, Erland Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382	journal	May 2013
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012 Allan, Richard P.; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060962	journal	August 2014
Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems: GLOBAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT Levitus, S.; Antonov, J. I.; Boyer, T. P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037155	journal	April 2009
Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models Palmer, M. D.; McNeall, D. J. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034016	journal	March 2014
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia Power, S.; Casey, T.; Folland, C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 15, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284	journal	May 1999
Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review Ceppi, Paulo; Hartmann, Dennis L. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x	journal	April 2015
Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC) Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda https://doi.org/10.17882/42182	dataset	January 2018
Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC) Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda https://doi.org/10.17882/42182	dataset	January 2018
Earth's energy imbalance and implications Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-27031-2011	journal	January 2011
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers Marzeion, B.; Jarosch, A. H.; Hofer, M. The Cryosphere Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012	posted_content	August 2012
A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change. Church, J. A.; Conroy, J. L.; Domingues, C. M. UNESCO/IOC https://doi.org/10.25607/obp-466	null	January 2013
Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-21105-2012	journal	January 2012
Internal variability of Earth's energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models Palmer, Matt D.; McNeall, Doug J. Institute of Physics (IOP) https://doi.org/10.5446/39449	audiovisual	January 2014
Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model: SURFACE RESPONSE TO AEROSOL CHANGE Fyfe, J. C.; von Salzen, K.; Cole, J. N. S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50156	journal	February 2013
An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy Trenberth, Kevin E. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001	journal	October 2009
Tracing the upper ocean's “missing heat”: TRACING THE UPPER OCEAN'S “MISSING HEAT” Katsman, C. A.; van Oldenborgh, G. J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl048417	journal	July 2011
Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Andreu-Burillo, Isabel Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1863	journal	April 2013
An update on Earth's energy balance in light of the latest global observations Stephens, Graeme L.; Li, Juilin; Wild, Martin Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1580	journal	September 2012
Reconciling warming trends Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2105	journal	February 2014
Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System Levitus, S. Science, Vol. 292, Issue 5515 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058154	journal	April 2001
Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013	journal	January 2013
Consistency of the current global ocean observing systems from an Argo perspective von Schuckmann, K.; Sallée, J. -B.; Chambers, D. Ocean Science, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014	journal	January 2014

Cited By (39)

Seasonal constraints on inferred planetary heat content: SEASONALLY CONSTRAINED HEAT BUDGET McKinnon, Karen A.; Huybers, Peter Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071055	journal	October 2016
Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content: DRIVERS OF HEAT CONTENT VARIABILITY Roberts, C. D.; Palmer, M. D.; Allan, R. P. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 122, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012278	journal	January 2017
Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300 Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000732	journal	March 2018
Constraining the Global Ocean Heat Content Through Assimilation of CERES-Derived TOA Energy Imbalance Estimates: Assimilating CERES Energy Imbalance Data Storto, Andrea; Yang, Chunxue; Masina, Simona Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075396	journal	October 2017
Sea and land surface temperatures, ocean heat content, Earth's energy imbalance and net radiative forcing over the recent years: SEA AND LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE Dieng, H. B.; Cazenave, A.; Meyssignac, B. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4996	journal	January 2017
Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses Palmer, M. D.; Roberts, C. D.; Balmaseda, M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0	journal	September 2015
Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation Woodworth, P. L.; Morales Maqueda, M. Á.; Gehrels, W. R. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3464-1	journal	November 2016
A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia? Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen Climate Dynamics, Vol. 51, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3935-z	journal	October 2017
Global ocean heat content redistribution during the 1998–2012 Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation negative phase Gastineau, Guillaume; Friedman, Andrew R.; Khodri, Myriam Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4387-9	journal	August 2018
Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4526-3	journal	November 2018
Inter-hemispheric differences in energy budgets and cross-equatorial transport anomalies during the 20th century Lembo, Valerio; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4572-x	journal	December 2018
Quantifying the importance of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates Wei, Meng; Qiao, Fangli; Guo, Yongqing Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04955-2	journal	September 2019
Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating Desbruyères, Damien; McDonagh, Elaine L.; King, Brian A. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0037-7	journal	May 2016
Reconciling Estimates of Ocean Heating and Earth’s Radiation Budget Palmer, Matthew D. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0053-7	journal	January 2017
On the Time Evolution of Climate Sensitivity and Future Warming Goodwin, Philip Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef000889	journal	September 2018
Quantifying the Terrestrial Carbon Feedback to Anthropogenic Carbon Emission Goodwin, Philip Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001258	journal	December 2019
An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance von Schuckmann, K.; Palmer, M. D.; Trenberth, K. E. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2876	journal	January 2016
The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses Hedemann, Christopher; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Jungclaus, Johann Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3274	journal	April 2017
Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lu, Jian Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10926	journal	March 2016
Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Okumura, Yuko M. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2581	journal	November 2015
Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2828	journal	October 2016
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017	journal	September 2017
Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions Menary, Matthew B.; Hermanson, Leon Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04043-9	journal	April 2018
Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints Goodwin, Philip; Katavouta, Anna; Roussenov, Vassil M. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 2, p. 102-107 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0054-8	journal	January 2018
Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles Allison, L. C.; Roberts, C. D.; Palmer, M. D. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b0b	journal	August 2019
Measuring Global Ocean Heat Content to Estimate the Earth Energy Imbalance Meyssignac, Benoit; Boyer, Tim; Zhao, Zhongxiang Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432	journal	August 2019
Evaluation of Five Satellite Top-of-Atmosphere Albedo Products over Land Zhan, Chuan; Allan, Richard P.; Liang, Shunlin Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11242919	journal	December 2019
North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Pickler, Carolyne; Beltrami, Hugo Climate of the Past, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016	journal	January 2016
The TropD software package (v1): standardized methods for calculating tropical-width diagnostics Adam, Ori; Grise, Kevin M.; Staten, Paul Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4339-2018	journal	January 2018
TheDiaTo (v1.0) – a new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models Lembo, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank; Lucarini, Valerio Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3805-2019	journal	January 2019
TheDiaTo (v1.0) – A new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models Lembo, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank; Lucarini, Valerio Geoscientific Model Development Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-37	posted_content	February 2019
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000197761	text	January 2017
Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lu, Jian Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10926	journal	March 2016
Correspondence: Reply to: ‘Correspondence: Variations in ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus’ Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lu, Jian Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12542	journal	August 2016
Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions Menary, Matthew B.; Hermanson, Leon Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04043-9	journal	April 2018
Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance Drijfhout, Sybren Scientific Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep14877	journal	October 2015
Changes in Earth’s Energy Budget during and after the “Pause” in Global Warming: An Observational Perspective Loeb, Norman; Thorsen, Tyler; Norris, Joel Climate, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030062	journal	July 2018
A computationally efficient method for probabilistic local warming projections constrained by history matching and pattern scaling, demonstrated by WASP–LGRTC-1.0 Goodwin, Philip; Leduc, Martin; Partanen, Antti-Ilari Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020	journal	November 2020
An effective parameter optimization with radiation balance constraint in CAM5 (version 5.3) Wu, Li; Zhang, Tao; Qin, Yi Geoscientific Model Development Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-96	journal	July 2019