Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960
Abstract
Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.
- Authors:
-
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
- National Oceanography Centre, Southampton UK
- NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1354912
- Grant/Contract Number:
- GA01101; NE/K005480/1
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; ocean uptake; net radiation
Citation Formats
Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D., and Scaife, Adam A. Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2014gl062669.
Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D., & Scaife, Adam A. Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062669
Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D., and Scaife, Adam A. Thu .
"Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062669. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1354912.
@article{osti_1354912,
title = {Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960},
author = {Smith, Doug M. and Allan, Richard P. and Coward, Andrew C. and Eade, Rosie and Hyder, Patrick and Liu, Chunlei and Loeb, Norman G. and Palmer, Matthew D. and Roberts, Chris D. and Scaife, Adam A.},
abstractNote = {Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.},
doi = {10.1002/2014gl062669},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Feb 19 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Thu Feb 19 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}
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Figure 1: Assessment of Met Office ocean reanalysis. (left) Total number of temperature observations at 1000m depth during the period 2008 to 2012 using (a) all data and subsampled data typical of (c) the 1990s and (e) the 1960s. (right) Patterns of ocean heat content trends (Ht, Wm-2) for themore »
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