Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Bring, Arvid; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5

Title: Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Abstract

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. Finally, in the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.

Authors:

Bring, Arvid ^[1]; Rogberg, Peter ^[2]; Destouni, Georgia ^[2]

Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of the Earth, Oceans and Space
Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology

Publication Date:: Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015

Research Org.:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE; Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Swedish Research Council (SRC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1354795

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Ambio

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: S3; Journal ID: ISSN 0044-7447

Publisher:: Springer

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Baltic Sea drainage basin; Baltic Sea Action Plan; Climate change; Waterborne nutrient transport; CMIP5 general circulation models; Runoff projections

Citation Formats


                    Bring, Arvid, Rogberg, Peter, and Destouni, Georgia. Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea.  United States: N. p., 2015. 
Web.  doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5.

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                    Bring, Arvid, Rogberg, Peter, & Destouni, Georgia. Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5

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                    Bring, Arvid, Rogberg, Peter, and Destouni, Georgia. Thu .  
"Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1354795.

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@article{osti_1354795,

  title        = {Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea},

  author       = {Bring, Arvid and Rogberg, Peter and Destouni, Georgia},

  abstractNote = {Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. Finally, in the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.},

  doi          = {10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5},

  journal      = {Ambio},

  number       = S3,

  volume       = 44,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015},

  month        = {Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015}

}

Copy to clipboard

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5

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Cited by: 13 works

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Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 9-10
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History of nutrient inputs to the northeastern United States, 1930-2000: NUTRIENT INPUTS TO THE NORTHEAST
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Title: Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Abstract

Citation Formats

Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century journal, March 2014

Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use journal, January 2012

Seasonal streamflow forecast: a GCM multi-model downscaling approach journal, September 2010

Seasonal streamflow forecast: a GCM multi-model downscaling approach journal, September 2010

Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets journal, October 2008

Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin journal, May 2008

Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets journal, October 2008

History of nutrient inputs to the northeastern United States, 1930-2000: NUTRIENT INPUTS TO THE NORTHEAST journal, June 2013

Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea journal, May 2009

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes journal, June 2013

Hydrological Alterations and Marine Biogeochemistry: A Silicate Issue? journal, January 2000

Global change and eutrophication of coastal waters journal, March 2009

Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale journal, January 2011

Interaction between Urbanization and Climate Variability Amplifies Watershed Nitrate Export in Maryland journal, August 2008

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design journal, April 2012

Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems journal, August 2008

A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase journal, March 1993

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan journal, August 2012

Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed journal, June 2014

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment journal, February 2010

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment journal, February 2010

Overview of Hypoxia around the World journal, January 2001

Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed journal, June 2014

Spatial Characterization of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and Its Unmonitored Catchments journal, August 2006

Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099 journal, April 2012

Developing an analytical framework for assessing progress toward ecosystem-based management journal, May 2015

Legal prerequisites for ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea area: The example of eutrophication journal, May 2015

Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea, 1970–1993 journal, January 1999

Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use posted_content, August 2011

Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale journal, January 2011

When tails wag the decision: The role of distributional tails on climate impacts on decision-relevant time-scales preprint, January 2017

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan journal, August 2012

History of nutrient inputs to the northeastern United States, 1930-2000: NUTRIENT INPUTS TO THE NORTHEAST journal, June 2013

Interaction between Urbanization and Climate Variability Amplifies Watershed Nitrate Export in Maryland journal, August 2008

Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems journal, August 2008

A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase journal, March 1993

Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation journal, December 2013

Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin journal, May 2008

Data-driven regionalization of river discharges and emergent land cover-evapotranspiration relationships across Sweden: RIVER DISCHARGES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION journal, March 2013

Dominant Hydro-Climatic Drivers of Water Temperature, Salinity, and Flow Variability for the Large-Scale System of the Baltic Coastal Wetlands journal, March 2019

Contrasting Hydroclimatic Model‐Data Agreements Over the Nordic‐Arctic Region journal, December 2019

Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges journal, May 2015

Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century
journal, March 2014

Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use
journal, January 2012

Seasonal streamflow forecast: a GCM multi-model downscaling approach
journal, September 2010

Seasonal streamflow forecast: a GCM multi-model downscaling approach
journal, September 2010

Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets
journal, October 2008

Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin
journal, May 2008

Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets
journal, October 2008

History of nutrient inputs to the northeastern United States, 1930-2000: NUTRIENT INPUTS TO THE NORTHEAST
journal, June 2013

Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea
journal, May 2009

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes
journal, June 2013

Hydrological Alterations and Marine Biogeochemistry: A Silicate Issue?
journal, January 2000

Global change and eutrophication of coastal waters
journal, March 2009

Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale
journal, January 2011

Interaction between Urbanization and Climate Variability Amplifies Watershed Nitrate Export in Maryland
journal, August 2008

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems
journal, August 2008

A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase
journal, March 1993

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan
journal, August 2012

Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed
journal, June 2014

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010

Overview of Hypoxia around the World
journal, January 2001

Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed
journal, June 2014

Spatial Characterization of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and Its Unmonitored Catchments
journal, August 2006

Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099
journal, April 2012

Developing an analytical framework for assessing progress toward ecosystem-based management
journal, May 2015

Legal prerequisites for ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea area: The example of eutrophication
journal, May 2015

Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea, 1970–1993
journal, January 1999

Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use
posted_content, August 2011

Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale
journal, January 2011

When tails wag the decision: The role of distributional tails on climate impacts on decision-relevant time-scales
preprint, January 2017

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan
journal, August 2012

History of nutrient inputs to the northeastern United States, 1930-2000: NUTRIENT INPUTS TO THE NORTHEAST
journal, June 2013

Interaction between Urbanization and Climate Variability Amplifies Watershed Nitrate Export in Maryland
journal, August 2008

Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems
journal, August 2008

A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase
journal, March 1993

Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation
journal, December 2013

Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin
journal, May 2008

Data-driven regionalization of river discharges and emergent land cover-evapotranspiration relationships across Sweden: RIVER DISCHARGES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
journal, March 2013

Dominant Hydro-Climatic Drivers of Water Temperature, Salinity, and Flow Variability for the Large-Scale System of the Baltic Coastal Wetlands
journal, March 2019

Contrasting Hydroclimatic Model‐Data Agreements Over the Nordic‐Arctic Region
journal, December 2019

Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges
journal, May 2015