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Title: Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in thismore » paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less
Authors:
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  1. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  2. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), St. Lucia, QLD (Australia)
  3. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Inst. on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany)
  4. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Agricultural Economics
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  6. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranen Center on Climate Change, Milan (Italy)
  7. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, (Japan)
  8. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany); Mercator Research Inst. on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-117807
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); European Union (EU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; Shared socio economic pathway; SSP5; emission scenario; energy transformation; land-use change; integrated assessment modeling
OSTI Identifier:
1353324