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Title: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Abstract

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensivemore » SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [4];  [1];  [1];  [8];  [8];  [3];  [8];  [3];  [2];  [8];  [4];  [4];  [1] more »;  [2];  [3];  [5];  [1];  [4];  [2];  [2];  [9] « less
  1. Potsdam Inst. for CIimate Impact Research (Germany)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  3. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy)
  4. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  5. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  6. Potsdam Inst. for CIimate Impact Research (Germany); Mercator Research Inst. for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)
  7. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; KAIST College of Business, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Graduate School of Green Growth
  8. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands)
  9. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands); Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Copernicus Inst. for Sustainable Development
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Potsdam Inst. for CIimate Impact Research (Germany); National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); Ministry of the Environment (Japan)
Contributing Org.:
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy); International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Inst. for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany); KAIST College of Business, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands); Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands)
OSTI Identifier:
1353308
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115383
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; 01LA11020B; 2-1402
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs); Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); Energy system; Energy demand; Energy supply; Energy resources

Citation Formats

Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hilaire, Jérôme, Eom, Jiyong, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, van den Berg, Maarten, Carrara, Samuel, Daioglou, Vassilis, Drouet, Laurent, Edmonds, James E., Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Johnson, Nils, Klein, David, Kyle, Page, Marangoni, Giacomo, Masui, Toshihiko, Pietzcker, Robert C., Strubegger, Manfred, Wise, Marshall, Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006.
Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hilaire, Jérôme, Eom, Jiyong, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, van den Berg, Maarten, Carrara, Samuel, Daioglou, Vassilis, Drouet, Laurent, Edmonds, James E., Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Johnson, Nils, Klein, David, Kyle, Page, Marangoni, Giacomo, Masui, Toshihiko, Pietzcker, Robert C., Strubegger, Manfred, Wise, Marshall, Riahi, Keywan, & van Vuuren, Detlef P. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006
Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hilaire, Jérôme, Eom, Jiyong, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, van den Berg, Maarten, Carrara, Samuel, Daioglou, Vassilis, Drouet, Laurent, Edmonds, James E., Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Johnson, Nils, Klein, David, Kyle, Page, Marangoni, Giacomo, Masui, Toshihiko, Pietzcker, Robert C., Strubegger, Manfred, Wise, Marshall, Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Tue . "Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1353308.
@article{osti_1353308,
title = {Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives},
author = {Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Emmerling, Johannes and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hilaire, Jérôme and Eom, Jiyong and Krey, Volker and Kriegler, Elmar and Mouratiadou, Ioanna and Sytze de Boer, Harmen and van den Berg, Maarten and Carrara, Samuel and Daioglou, Vassilis and Drouet, Laurent and Edmonds, James E. and Gernaat, David and Havlik, Petr and Johnson, Nils and Klein, David and Kyle, Page and Marangoni, Giacomo and Masui, Toshihiko and Pietzcker, Robert C. and Strubegger, Manfred and Wise, Marshall and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
abstractNote = {Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
number = ,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {8}
}

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