A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals
[1];
- Sea Mammal Research Unit Scottish Oceans Institute University of St Andrews Fife KY16 8LB UK
- Lighthouse Field Station Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Cromarty IV11 8YL UK
- Duke University Marine Laboratory Nicholas School of the Environment Beaufort North Carolina 28516 USA
Abstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter‐birth interval ( IBI ) can be estimated. We use generalized linear mixed‐effects models to account for individual and temporal variability and apply the approach to individual reproductive histories of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) from the east coast of Scotland. We estimate a fecundity rate of 0.222 (95% CI = 0.218–0.253) and an expected IBI of 4.49 yr (95% CI = 3.94–4.93 yr). We use simulated data samples to show that the approach produces estimates with a minimum bias of <3%. Simulations are also used to investigate the effect of the most common data‐driven biases in the estimates of birth intervals and fecundity rate; we recommend longitudinal studies of at least 10 yr and capture probabilities of at least 0.3 when using this methodology. The approach may be modified to incorporate other parameters of interest and should be applicable to any population with comprehensive data on birth intervals.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 1351918
- Journal Information:
- Ecosphere, Journal Name: Ecosphere Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 8; ISSN 2150-8925
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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