Title: Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Abstract

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21^st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.

Authors:

Rao, Shilpa ^[1]; Klimont, Zbigniew ^[2]; Smith, Steven J. ^[3]; Van Dingenen, Rita ^[4]; Dentener, Frank ^[4]; Bouwman, Lex  ^[5];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Bouwman, Lex"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-2045-1859"
• Search orcid.org for ORCID "0000-0002-2045-1859"

Riahi, Keywan ^[6]; Amann, Markus ^[2]; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ^[7]; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^[5]; Reis, Lara Aleluia ^[8]; Calvin, Katherine ^[9]; Drouet, Laurent  ^[8];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Drouet, Laurent"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-4087-7662"
• Search orcid.org for ORCID "0000-0002-4087-7662"

Fricko, Oliver ^[2]; Fujimori, Shinichiro ^[10]; Gernaat, David ^[11]; Havlik, Petr ^[2]; Harmsen, Mathijs ^[11]; Hasegawa, Tomoko ^[10]; Heyes, Chris ^[2] more »; Hilaire, Jérôme ^[12]; Luderer, Gunnar ^[13]; Masui, Toshihiko ^[10]; Stehfest, Elke ^[11]; Strefler, Jessica ^[14]; van der Sluis, Sietske ^[11]; Tavoni, Massimo ^[15] « less

---

+ Show Author Affiliations

1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo (Norway)
2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
4. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)
5. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
6. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology, Graz (Austria)
7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia (Austria)
8. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy)
9. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
10. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
11. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
12. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)
13. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
14. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany);
15. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy); Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy)

Publication Date:

2016-07-15

Research Org.:

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1349165

Report Number(s):

PNNL-SA-116149
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Global Environmental Change

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:

Elsevier

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; scenarios; air pollution; integrated assessment models