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Title: Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Abstract

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [6];  [2];  [7];  [5];  [8];  [9]; ORCiD logo [8];  [2];  [10];  [11];  [2];  [11];  [10];  [2] more »;  [12];  [13];  [10];  [11];  [14];  [11];  [15] « less
  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo (Norway)
  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  4. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)
  5. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  6. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology, Graz (Austria)
  7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia (Austria)
  8. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy)
  9. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
  10. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  11. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  12. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)
  13. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  14. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany);
  15. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy); Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1349165
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-116149
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; scenarios; air pollution; integrated assessment models

Citation Formats

Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Reis, Lara Aleluia, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tavoni, Massimo. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012.
Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Reis, Lara Aleluia, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, & Tavoni, Massimo. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. United States. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012.
Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Reis, Lara Aleluia, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tavoni, Massimo. Fri . "Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways". United States. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1349165.
@article{osti_1349165,
title = {Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways},
author = {Rao, Shilpa and Klimont, Zbigniew and Smith, Steven J. and Van Dingenen, Rita and Dentener, Frank and Bouwman, Lex and Riahi, Keywan and Amann, Markus and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Reis, Lara Aleluia and Calvin, Katherine and Drouet, Laurent and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Gernaat, David and Havlik, Petr and Harmsen, Mathijs and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Heyes, Chris and Hilaire, Jérôme and Luderer, Gunnar and Masui, Toshihiko and Stehfest, Elke and Strefler, Jessica and van der Sluis, Sietske and Tavoni, Massimo},
abstractNote = {Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
number = C,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {7}
}

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Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)
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Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
journal, January 2019

  • Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019

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journal, January 2019

  • Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019

Climate Change Penalty to Ozone Air Quality: Review of Current Understandings and Knowledge Gaps
journal, June 2019


Gridded emissions and land-use data for 2005–2100 under diverse socioeconomic and climate mitigation scenarios
journal, October 2018

  • Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Ito, Akihiko
  • Scientific Data, Vol. 5, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.210

Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM 2.5 pollution over India (2015–2050)
journal, January 2018

  • Venkataraman, Chandra; Brauer, Michael; Tibrewal, Kushal
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-8017-2018

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)
journal, January 2018

  • Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018

Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
journal, January 2019

  • Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019

GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
journal, January 2019

  • Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019