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Title: Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. Finally, the results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existingmore » load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.« less
 [1] ;  [2]
  1. Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); SLAC National Accelerator Lab., Menlo Park, CA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Applied Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 181; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619
Research Org:
SLAC National Accelerator Lab., Menlo Park, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; electricity demand response; demand elasticity; real-time pricing; indirect load control; transactive systems; random utility model
OSTI Identifier:
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1358778