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Title: Measured extent of agricultural expansion depends on analysis technique

Concern is rising that ecologically important, carbon-rich natural lands in the United States are losing ground to agriculture. We investigate how quantitative assessments of historical land use change to address this concern differ in their conclusions depending on the data set used. We examined land use change between 2006 and 2014 in 20 counties in the Prairie Pothole Region using the Cropland Data Layer, a modified Cropland Data Layer, data from the National Agricultural Imagery Program, and in-person ground-truthing. The Cropland Data Layer analyses overwhelmingly returned the largest amount of land use change with associated error that limits drawing conclusions from it. Analysis with visual imagery estimated a fraction of this land use change. Clearly, analysis technique drives understanding of the measured extent of land use change; different techniques produce vastly different results that would inform land management policy in strikingly different ways. As a result, best practice guidelines are needed.
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
  2. Genscape, Inc., Louisville KY (United States)
  3. Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-104X
Publisher:
Wiley
Research Org:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Bioenergy Technologies Office (EE-3B)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1346722

Dunn, Jennifer B., Merz, Dylan, Copenhaver, Ken L., and Mueller, Steffen. Measured extent of agricultural expansion depends on analysis technique. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1002/bbb.1750.
Dunn, Jennifer B., Merz, Dylan, Copenhaver, Ken L., & Mueller, Steffen. Measured extent of agricultural expansion depends on analysis technique. United States. doi:10.1002/bbb.1750.
Dunn, Jennifer B., Merz, Dylan, Copenhaver, Ken L., and Mueller, Steffen. 2017. "Measured extent of agricultural expansion depends on analysis technique". United States. doi:10.1002/bbb.1750. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1346722.
@article{osti_1346722,
title = {Measured extent of agricultural expansion depends on analysis technique},
author = {Dunn, Jennifer B. and Merz, Dylan and Copenhaver, Ken L. and Mueller, Steffen},
abstractNote = {Concern is rising that ecologically important, carbon-rich natural lands in the United States are losing ground to agriculture. We investigate how quantitative assessments of historical land use change to address this concern differ in their conclusions depending on the data set used. We examined land use change between 2006 and 2014 in 20 counties in the Prairie Pothole Region using the Cropland Data Layer, a modified Cropland Data Layer, data from the National Agricultural Imagery Program, and in-person ground-truthing. The Cropland Data Layer analyses overwhelmingly returned the largest amount of land use change with associated error that limits drawing conclusions from it. Analysis with visual imagery estimated a fraction of this land use change. Clearly, analysis technique drives understanding of the measured extent of land use change; different techniques produce vastly different results that would inform land management policy in strikingly different ways. As a result, best practice guidelines are needed.},
doi = {10.1002/bbb.1750},
journal = {Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining},
number = 2,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {1}
}