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Title: Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate ofmore » transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [1] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8]
  1. German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg (Germany)
  2. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany). Institute for Nuclear Waste Disposal (INE)
  3. IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)
  4. Public Health England, Chilton (United Kingdom)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  6. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)
  7. BfS, Oberschleissheim (Germany)
  8. Research Centre for Energy, Environment and Technology (CIEMAT), Madrid (Spain)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Radiation Protection Dosimetry
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 163; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0144-8420
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY
OSTI Identifier:
1346646

Li, W. B., Klein, W., Blanchardon, Eric, Puncher, M, Leggett, Richard Wayne, Oeh, U., Breustedt, B., Nosske, Dietmar, and Lopez, M.. Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1093/rpd/ncu055.
Li, W. B., Klein, W., Blanchardon, Eric, Puncher, M, Leggett, Richard Wayne, Oeh, U., Breustedt, B., Nosske, Dietmar, & Lopez, M.. Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium. United States. doi:10.1093/rpd/ncu055.
Li, W. B., Klein, W., Blanchardon, Eric, Puncher, M, Leggett, Richard Wayne, Oeh, U., Breustedt, B., Nosske, Dietmar, and Lopez, M.. 2014. "Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium". United States. doi:10.1093/rpd/ncu055. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1346646.
@article{osti_1346646,
title = {Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium},
author = {Li, W. B. and Klein, W. and Blanchardon, Eric and Puncher, M and Leggett, Richard Wayne and Oeh, U. and Breustedt, B. and Nosske, Dietmar and Lopez, M.},
abstractNote = {Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS.},
doi = {10.1093/rpd/ncu055},
journal = {Radiation Protection Dosimetry},
number = 1,
volume = 163,
place = {United States},
year = {2014},
month = {4}
}