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Title: Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [3] ;  [4] ; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos New Mexico USA
  3. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA
  4. National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Boulder Colorado USA
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-15-27476
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics
OSTI Identifier:
1344353

Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Cunningham, Gregory S., Redmon, Robert J., and Henderson, Michael G.. Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1002/2015GL067481.
Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Cunningham, Gregory S., Redmon, Robert J., & Henderson, Michael G.. Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit. United States. doi:10.1002/2015GL067481.
Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Cunningham, Gregory S., Redmon, Robert J., and Henderson, Michael G.. 2016. "Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit". United States. doi:10.1002/2015GL067481. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1344353.
@article{osti_1344353,
title = {Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit},
author = {Chen, Yue and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Cunningham, Gregory S. and Redmon, Robert J. and Henderson, Michael G.},
abstractNote = {Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067481},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {2}
}