skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit

Abstract

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos New Mexico USA
  3. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA
  4. National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Boulder Colorado USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1344353
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-15-27476
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics

Citation Formats

Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Cunningham, Gregory S., Redmon, Robert J., and Henderson, Michael G. Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2015GL067481.
Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Cunningham, Gregory S., Redmon, Robert J., & Henderson, Michael G. Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit. United States. doi:10.1002/2015GL067481.
Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Cunningham, Gregory S., Redmon, Robert J., and Henderson, Michael G. Mon . "Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit". United States. doi:10.1002/2015GL067481. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1344353.
@article{osti_1344353,
title = {Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit},
author = {Chen, Yue and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Cunningham, Gregory S. and Redmon, Robert J. and Henderson, Michael G.},
abstractNote = {Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067481},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {2}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Highly relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer magnetosphere: 1. Lifetimes and temporal history 1979–1984
journal, January 1986

  • Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.; Klebesadel, R. W.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 91, Issue A4
  • DOI: 10.1029/JA091iA04p04265

Deep dielectric charging effects due to high-energy electrons in earth's outer magnetosphere
journal, October 1987


Linear prediction filter analysis of relativistic electron properties at 6.6 R E
journal, January 1990

  • Baker, D. N.; McPherron, R. L.; Cayton, T. E.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, Issue A9
  • DOI: 10.1029/JA095iA09p15133

An extreme distortion of the Van Allen belt arising from the ‘Hallowe'en’ solar storm in 2003
journal, December 2004


A three-dimensional analysis of the electron radiation belt by the Salammbô code
journal, January 1995

  • Beutier, Thierry; Boscher, Daniel
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 100, Issue A8
  • DOI: 10.1029/94JA03066

The Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) Instruments Aboard the Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) Spacecraft
journal, June 2013

  • Blake, J. B.; Carranza, P. A.; Claudepierre, S. G.
  • Space Science Reviews, Vol. 179, Issue 1-4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11214-013-9991-8

Multisatellite determination of the relativistic electron phase space density at geosynchronous orbit: An integrated investigation during geomagnetic storm times: STORM
journal, November 2007

  • Chen, Y.; Friedel, R. H. W.; Reeves, G. D.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 112, Issue A11
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007JA012314

LEEM: A new empirical model of radiation-belt electrons in the low-Earth-orbit region: LEO ELECTRON ENVIRONMENT MODEL
journal, November 2012

  • Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey; Friedel, Reiner H. W.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 117, Issue A11
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012JA017941

Global time-dependent chorus maps from low-Earth-orbit electron precipitation and Van Allen Probes data: Chen et al.: Derive Global Time-dependent Chorus Maps
journal, February 2014

  • Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Friedel, Reiner H. W.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059181

Radiation Belt Environment model: Application to space weather nowcasting: RADIATION BELT MODEL AND SPACE WEATHER
journal, January 2008

  • Fok, Mei-Ching; Horne, Richard B.; Meredith, Nigel P.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 113, Issue A3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007JA012558

Three-dimensional electron radiation belt simulations using the BAS Radiation Belt Model with new diffusion models for chorus, plasmaspheric hiss, and lightning-generated whistlers: GLAUERT ET AL.
journal, January 2014

  • Glauert, Sarah A.; Horne, Richard B.; Meredith, Nigel P.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 119, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013JA019281

Potential waves for relativistic electron scattering and stochastic acceleration during magnetic storms
journal, August 1998

  • Horne, Richard B.; Thorne, Richard M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 25, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1029/98GL01002

Electron acceleration in the Van Allen radiation belts by fast magnetosonic waves
journal, January 2007

  • Horne, Richard B.; Thorne, Richard M.; Glauert, Sarah A.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030267

Forecasting the Earth’s radiation belts and modelling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST
journal, January 2013

  • Horne, Richard B.; Glauert, Sarah A.; Meredith, Nigel P.
  • Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Vol. 3
  • DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2013042

Simulated magnetopause losses and Van Allen Probe flux dropouts
journal, February 2014

  • Hudson, M. K.; Baker, D. N.; Goldstein, J.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059222

Multisatellite measurements of relativistic electrons: Global coherence
journal, December 2001

  • Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 106, Issue A12
  • DOI: 10.1029/2001JA000070

Limit on stably trapped particle fluxes
journal, January 1966


Dynamic evolution of energetic outer zone electrons due to wave-particle interactions during storms: EVOLUTION OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
journal, October 2007

  • Li, W.; Shprits, Y. Y.; Thorne, R. M.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 112, Issue A10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007JA012368

Quantitative prediction of radiation belt electrons at geostationary orbit based on solar wind measurements
journal, May 2001

  • Li, Xinlin; Temerin, M.; Baker, D. N.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2000GL012681

Behavior of MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit during last two solar cycles: MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
journal, November 2011

  • Li, X.; Temerin, M.; Baker, D. N.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 116, Issue A11
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011JA016934

A predictive model for relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit
journal, January 2008

  • Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Khazanov, George V.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1029/2008GL034688

Science Objectives and Rationale for the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Mission
journal, September 2012


Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms: ACCELERATION AND LOSS OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS
journal, May 2003

  • Reeves, G. D.; McAdams, K. L.; Friedel, R. H. W.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2002GL016513

Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model: DREAM: DYNAMIC RADIATION ENVIRONMENT ASSIMILATION MODEL
journal, March 2012

  • Reeves, G. D.; Chen, Y.; Cunningham, G. S.
  • Space Weather, Vol. 10, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011SW000729

A new ONERA-CNES slot electron model
conference, September 2013

  • Sicard-Piet, A.; Boscher, D.; Lazaro, D.
  • 2013 14th European Conference on Radiation and Its Effects on Components and Systems (RADECS)
  • DOI: 10.1109/RADECS.2013.6937415

Radiation effects on microelectronics in space
journal, January 1988

  • Srour, J. R.; McGarrity, J. M.
  • Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 76, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1109/5.90114

Rapid local acceleration of relativistic radiation-belt electrons by magnetospheric chorus
journal, December 2013


Modeling radiation belt electron dynamics during GEM challenge intervals with the DREAM3D diffusion model: MODELING RADIATION BELT WITH DREAM3D
journal, October 2013

  • Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, G. S.; Chen, Y.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 118, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1002/jgra.50560

Event-specific chorus wave and electron seed population models in DREAM3D using the Van Allen Probes: Tu et al.: Event-specific chorus and seed electrons
journal, March 2014

  • Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, G. S.; Chen, Y.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058819

Explaining sudden losses of outer radiation belt electrons during geomagnetic storms
journal, January 2012

  • Turner, Drew L.; Shprits, Yuri; Hartinger, Michael
  • Nature Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/nphys2185

Three-dimensional stochastic modeling of radiation belts in adiabatic invariant coordinates
journal, September 2014

  • Zheng, Liheng; Chan, Anthony A.; Albert, Jay M.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 119, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014JA020127

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron‐Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt
    journal, March 2019

    • Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Fu, Xiangrong
    • Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018sw002095

    Operational Nowcasting of Electron Flux Levels in the Outer Zone of Earth's Radiation Belt
    journal, May 2018

    • Coleman, Tim; McCollough, James P.; Young, Shawn
    • Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1029/2017sw001788

    The Global Statistical Response of the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms
    journal, May 2018

    • Murphy, K. R.; Watt, C. E. J.; Mann, I. R.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076674