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Title: Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

Abstract

Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude that a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12]
  1. Inst. for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division
  3. Inst. for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany)
  4. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany). Research Domain of Earth System Analysis; Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany). Geography Dept.
  5. Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdom). Inst. of Infection and Global Health
  6. Univ. of Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Geography
  7. Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom). School of Earth Sciences
  8. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Agricultural and Biological Engineering
  9. Univ. of Amsterdam (Netherlands). Inst. for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
  10. Univ. of Oslo (Norway). Dept. of Geosciences
  11. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
  12. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Univ. of Oslo (Norway); GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; Medical Research Council (MRC) (United Kingdom); Norwegian Research Council (Norway); German Research Foundation (DFG)
Contributing Org.:
Univ. of Nottingham (United Kingdom); Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Univ. of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Inst. for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States); Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany); Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
1343941
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1346282
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115412
Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; MR/M0501633/1; 229760/E10; 261862/E10; SPP 1689
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate impacts; climate change; geoengineering; climate engineering; solar radiation management; ISI-MIP

Citation Formats

Irvine, Peter J., Kravitz, Ben, Lawrence, Mark G., Gerten, Dieter, Caminade, Cyril, Gosling, Simon N., Hendy, Erica J., Kassie, Belay T., Kissling, W. Daniel, Muri, Helene, Oschlies, Andreas, and Smith, Steven J. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016ef000389.
Irvine, Peter J., Kravitz, Ben, Lawrence, Mark G., Gerten, Dieter, Caminade, Cyril, Gosling, Simon N., Hendy, Erica J., Kassie, Belay T., Kissling, W. Daniel, Muri, Helene, Oschlies, Andreas, & Smith, Steven J. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000389
Irvine, Peter J., Kravitz, Ben, Lawrence, Mark G., Gerten, Dieter, Caminade, Cyril, Gosling, Simon N., Hendy, Erica J., Kassie, Belay T., Kissling, W. Daniel, Muri, Helene, Oschlies, Andreas, and Smith, Steven J. Wed . "Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000389. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1343941.
@article{osti_1343941,
title = {Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering},
author = {Irvine, Peter J. and Kravitz, Ben and Lawrence, Mark G. and Gerten, Dieter and Caminade, Cyril and Gosling, Simon N. and Hendy, Erica J. and Kassie, Belay T. and Kissling, W. Daniel and Muri, Helene and Oschlies, Andreas and Smith, Steven J.},
abstractNote = {Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude that a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.},
doi = {10.1002/2016ef000389},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 1,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}

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Cited by: 35 works
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations and associated climate change will impact many sectors, as would solar geoengineering, yet in different ways. Five key sectors of climate impacts are shown: (1) Health, for example, mortality and morbidity due to heatwaves, air quality, and vector-borne diseases; (2) Food, for example, cropmore » yields and fish stocks; (3) Water, for example, freshwater availability and flooding; (4) Ecosystems (terrestrial and aquatic), for example, loss of habitat and other pressures on biodiversity; (5) Coasts, for example, erosion of coasts and coastal inundation.« less

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System
journal, February 2018

  • Sonntag, Sebastian; Ferrer González, Miriam; Ilyina, Tatiana
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017ef000620

Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection
journal, February 2019


Evoking equity as a rationale for solar geoengineering research? Scrutinizing emerging expert visions of equity
journal, September 2017

  • Flegal, Jane A.; Gupta, Aarti
  • International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Vol. 18, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10784-017-9377-6

Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
journal, February 2018


Holistic Assessment of SO 2 Injections Using CESM1(WACCM): Introduction to the Special Issue
journal, January 2019

  • Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Tilmes, Simone
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029293

Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
journal, September 2018


Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination
journal, January 2018

  • Trisos, Christopher H.; Amatulli, Giuseppe; Gurevitch, Jessica
  • Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 2, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0431-0

How do we overcome abrupt degradation of marine ecosystems and meet the challenge of heat waves and climate extremes?
journal, December 2019

  • Ainsworth, Tracy D.; Hurd, Catriona L.; Gates, Ruth D.
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14901

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models
journal, February 2018


Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production
journal, January 2017


Complementing CO2 emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare
journal, January 2019

  • Helwegen, Koen G.; Wieners, Claudia E.; Frank, Jason E.
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-453-2019

Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.