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Title: Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings

This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005, our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, whichmore » underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Clemson Univ., Clemson, SC (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-123268
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326; KP1703010
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; climate change; anthropogenic influence; precipitation variability
OSTI Identifier:
1342283
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1345451

Konapala, Goutam, Mishra, Ashok, and Leung, L. Ruby. Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a.
Konapala, Goutam, Mishra, Ashok, & Leung, L. Ruby. Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a.
Konapala, Goutam, Mishra, Ashok, and Leung, L. Ruby. 2017. "Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a.
@article{osti_1342283,
title = {Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings},
author = {Konapala, Goutam and Mishra, Ashok and Leung, L. Ruby},
abstractNote = {This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005, our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 2,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {2}
}