Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets
Abstract
The Paris Agreement long‐term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub‐selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate betweenmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford Oxford UK
- Climate Research Lab Oxford University Centre for the Environment Oxford UK
- Climate Analytics Berlin Germany, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany
- Energy Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich Zürich Switzerland
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change &, the Environment London School of Economics and Political Science London UK
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1341092
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1341093
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change Journal Volume: 8 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1757-7780
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
James, Rachel, Washington, Richard, Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich, Rogelj, Joeri, and Conway, Declan. Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/wcc.457.
James, Rachel, Washington, Richard, Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich, Rogelj, Joeri, & Conway, Declan. Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457
James, Rachel, Washington, Richard, Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich, Rogelj, Joeri, and Conway, Declan. Tue .
"Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457.
@article{osti_1341092,
title = {Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets},
author = {James, Rachel and Washington, Richard and Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich and Rogelj, Joeri and Conway, Declan},
abstractNote = {The Paris Agreement long‐term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub‐selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time‐lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e457. doi: 10.1002/wcc.457 This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.457},
journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change},
number = 2,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 24 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Tue Jan 24 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 166 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Anthropogenic impact on Earth’s hydrological cycle
journal, July 2013
- Wu, Peili; Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 9
ENSO and greenhouse warming
journal, August 2015
- Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 9
The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice
journal, January 2012
- Semenov, V. A.; Latif, M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 6
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
journal, August 2011
- Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal
journal, October 2014
- Victor, David G.; Kennel, Charles F.
- Nature, Vol. 514, Issue 7520
CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America
journal, August 2014
- Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 9-10
Geosciences after Paris
journal, February 2016
- Rogelj, Joeri; Knutti, Reto
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 3
Potential impacts of forestation on future climate change in Southern Africa: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FORESTATION
journal, February 2016
- Naik, Myra; Abiodun, Babatunde J.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 36, Issue 14
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
journal, December 2010
- Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam; Bourdette, Vincent
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 38, Issue 3-4
Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds
journal, January 2011
- Fung, Fai; Lopez, Ana; New, Mark
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934
When could global warming reach 4°C?
journal, January 2011
- Betts, Richard A.; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934
Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?: GLOBAL WARMING TARGETS VERSUS HEATWAVES
journal, September 2010
- Clark, Robin T.; Murphy, James M.; Brown, Simon J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 17
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011
- Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010
- Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.
- Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282
A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps
journal, March 2013
- Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G.; Leuzinger, Sebastian
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 6
Wetter then drier in some tropical areas
journal, July 2014
- Hawkins, Ed; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 8
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
journal, May 2015
- Rogelj, Joeri; Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 6
Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia
journal, June 2012
- Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian
- International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 57, Issue 3
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?: SCENARIO DEPENDENCE OF EXTREME RAIN
journal, October 2015
- Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
journal, January 2016
- Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2
A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning
journal, July 2009
- Wilby, R. L.; Troni, J.; Biot, Y.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 29, Issue 9
Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models
journal, May 2010
- Knutti, Reto; Furrer, Reinhard; Tebaldi, Claudia
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 10
An impossible task?
journal, March 2016
- Goldin, Tamara; Jiang, Xujia
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 3, p. 181-181
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise
journal, January 2011
- Schewe, J.; Levermann, A.; Meinshausen, M.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
journal, October 2015
- Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 10
Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes
journal, April 2015
- Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 6
Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity
journal, January 2007
- Kiehl, Jeffrey T.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 22
African Climate Change Uncertainty in Perturbed Physics Ensembles: Implications of Global Warming to 4°C and Beyond*
journal, June 2014
- James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 12
Modelling the impacts of reforestation on the projected hydroclimatology of Niger River Basin, West Africa: MODELLING THE IMPACTS OF REFORESTATION ON NIGER RIVER BASIN HYDROCLIMATOLOGY
journal, November 2012
- Oguntunde, Philip G.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lischeid, Gunnar
- Ecohydrology, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
journal, January 2016
- Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.
- Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
journal, July 2016
- Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 9
Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support
journal, December 2013
- Lopez, Ana; Suckling, Emma B.; Smith, Leonard A.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 4
Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet
journal, January 2011
- Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Malhi, Yadvinder; Huntingford, Chris
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934
Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing
journal, July 2015
- Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 7
Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate: CHANGES IN REGIONAL PRECIPITATION
journal, March 2012
- Mahlstein, Irina; Portmann, Robert W.; Daniel, John S.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 5
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries
journal, July 2011
- Mahlstein, I.; Knutti, R.; Solomon, S.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6, Issue 3
Climate impact research: beyond patchwork
journal, January 2014
- Huber, V.; Schellnhuber, H. J.; Arnell, N. W.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C
journal, May 2011
- May, Wilhelm
- Climatic Change, Vol. 110, Issue 3-4
How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation?
journal, January 2009
- Washington, Warren M.; Knutti, Reto; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 8
Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels
journal, June 2012
- Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Rahmstorf, Stefan
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 12
The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation
journal, July 2013
- Warren, R.; Lowe, J. A.; Arnell, N. W.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 120, Issue 1-2
1.5°C or 2°C: a conduit’s view from the science-policy interface at COP20 in Lima, Peru
journal, March 2015
- Tschakert, Petra
- Climate Change Responses, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Asymmetry of surface climate change under RCP2.6 projections from the CMIP5 models
journal, April 2013
- Xin, Xiaoge; Cheng, Yanjie; Wang, Fang
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 30, Issue 3
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability
journal, January 2014
- Schleussner, C. F.; Runge, J.; Lehmann, J.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 ° C+ world
journal, January 2011
- Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Peter G.; Ericksen, Polly J.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
journal, February 2008
- Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, Issue 6
Response of the HadGEM2 Earth System Model to Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pathways to the Year 2300*
journal, May 2013
- Caesar, John; Palin, Erika; Liddicoat, Spencer
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 10
How Well Do We Understand and Evaluate Climate Change Feedback Processes?
journal, August 2006
- Bony, Sandrine; Colman, Robert; Kattsov, Vladimir M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 15
An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations
journal, August 2000
- Huntingford, C.; Cox, P. M.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 16, Issue 8
Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming
journal, September 2012
- James, Rachel; Washington, Richard
- Climatic Change, Vol. 117, Issue 4
Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation
journal, October 2011
- Rowell, David P.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, Issue 7-8
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
journal, March 2009
- Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Held, H.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 13
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework
journal, December 2013
- Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
A transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 for climate information providers: the case of surface temperature over eastern North America
journal, May 2013
- Markovic, Marko; de Elía, Ramón; Frigon, Anne
- Climatic Change, Vol. 120, Issue 1-2
The Regional Climate Impact of a Realistic Future Deforestation Scenario in the Congo Basin
journal, March 2014
- Akkermans, Tom; Thiery, Wim; Van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 7
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results
journal, January 2011
- Todd, M. C.; Taylor, R. G.; Osborn, T. J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 15, Issue 3
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Arctic climate change with a 2 ∘C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change
journal, October 2006
- Kaplan, Jed O.; New, Mark
- Climatic Change, Vol. 79, Issue 3-4
A Nonlinear Response of Sahel Rainfall to Atlantic Warming
journal, September 2013
- Neupane, Naresh; Cook, Kerry H.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18
Process-based assessment of an ensemble of climate projections for West Africa: Process-based assessment of projections
journal, February 2015
- James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Jones, Richard
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 4
Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations
journal, January 2015
- Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks: The value and demands of robust decision frameworks
journal, December 2012
- Weaver, Christopher P.; Lempert, Robert J.; Brown, Casey
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations
journal, January 2014
- Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3
Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background
journal, January 2007
- Parker, David; Folland, Chris; Scaife, Adam
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue D18
Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
journal, October 2015
- Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 43
Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications
journal, January 2011
- New, Mark
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934
Analyzing the Climate Sensitivity of the HadSM3 Climate Model Using Ensembles from Different but Related Experiments
journal, July 2009
- Rougier, Jonathan; Sexton, David M. H.; Murphy, James M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 13
A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target
journal, December 2015
- Knutti, Reto; Rogelj, Joeri; Sedláček, Jan
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 1
1.5 °C and climate research after the Paris Agreement
journal, February 2016
- Hulme, Mike
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3
The climate prediction .net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble
journal, December 2008
- Frame, D. J.; Aina, T.; Christensen, C. M.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 367, Issue 1890
Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario
journal, July 2013
- Huebener, H.; Sanderson, M. G.; Höschel, I.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 120, Issue 1-2
A Scaling Approach to Probabilistic Assessment of Regional Climate Change
journal, May 2012
- Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9
Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs
journal, September 2012
- Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Golly, A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Early twentieth-century warming
journal, November 2009
- Brönnimann, Stefan
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 11
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
journal, January 2013
- Arnell, N. W.; Lowe, J. A.; Brown, S.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 5
Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C
journal, August 2015
- Gasser, T.; Guivarch, C.; Tachiiri, K.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Realizing the impacts of a 1.5 °C warmer world
journal, June 2016
- Mitchell, Daniel; James, Rachel; Forster, Piers M.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8
RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The European climate under a 2 °C global warming
journal, March 2014
- Vautard, Robert; Gobiet, Andreas; Sobolowski, Stefan
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 3
A step-response approach for predicting and understanding non-linear precipitation changes
journal, October 2012
- Good, Peter; Ingram, William; Lambert, F. Hugo
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, Issue 12
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim?
journal, October 2008
- Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker
- The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems
journal, June 2007
- Frame, D. J.; Faull, N. E.; Joshi, M. M.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 365, Issue 1857
The end of model democracy?: An editorial comment
journal, January 2010
- Knutti, Reto
- Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 3-4
The elephant, the blind, and the intersectoral intercomparison of climate impacts: Fig. 1.
journal, December 2013
- Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Frieler, Katja; Kabat, Pavel
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming
journal, August 2009
- Giannakopoulos, C.; Le Sager, P.; Bindi, M.
- Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 68, Issue 3
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
journal, December 2013
- Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models: CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN CMIP5 MODELS
journal, May 2012
- Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 9
A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations
journal, January 2015
- Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.
- Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 2
21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins: 21ST CENTURY RUNOFF SENSITIVITIES
journal, March 2012
- Tang, Qiuhong; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 6
September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2°C global warming above present: ARCTIC SEA ICE TO DISAPPEAR NEAR 2°C
journal, March 2012
- Mahlstein, Irina; Knutti, Reto
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D6
Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning
journal, October 2014
- Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Levermann, Anders; Meinshausen, Malte
- Climatic Change, Vol. 127, Issue 3-4
Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates
journal, February 2012
- Rogelj, Joeri; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 4
Climatic changes associated with a global “2°C-stabilization” scenario simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model
journal, January 2008
- May, Wilhelm
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 31, Issue 2-3
Beyond 2°C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems: Redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems
journal, March 2011
- Lenton, Timothy M.
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 3
Intensification of seasonal extremes given a 2°C global warming target
journal, September 2011
- Anderson, Bruce T.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 112, Issue 2
Understanding nonlinear tropical precipitation responses to CO 2 forcing
journal, September 2013
- Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 18
History of the 2 ° C climate target : 2
journal, July 2010
- Randalls, Samuel
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 1, Issue 4
Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
journal, September 2014
- Shepherd, Theodore G.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 10