Title: Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

Abstract

Here, urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe.more » A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Authors:

Güneralp, Burak ^[1]; Zhou, Yuyu ^[2]; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana ^[3]; Gupta, Mukesh ^[3]; Yu, Sha ^[4]; Patel, Pralit L. ^[4]; Fragkias, Michail ^[5]; Li, Xiaoma ^[6]; Seto, Karen C. ^[7]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Department of Geography, Texas A&,M University, College Station, TX 77843,, Center for Geospatial Science, Applications and Technology (GEOSAT), Texas A&,M University, College Station, TX 77843,
2. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011,
3. Centre for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University, 1051 Budapest, Hungary,
4. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740,
5. Department of Economics, Boise State University, Boise, ID 83725,
6. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011,, Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511,, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, People’s Republic of China
7. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511,

Publication Date:

2017-01-09

Research Org.:

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1338627

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1398181

Report Number(s):

PNNL-SA-120304
Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Volume: 114 Journal Issue: 34; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

42 ENGINEERING; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; urbanization; cities; urban form; climate change; mitigation