Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

Journal Article · 09 January 2017 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606035114 · OSTI ID:1338627

Güneralp, Burak ^[1]; Zhou, Yuyu ^[2]; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana ^[3]; Gupta, Mukesh ^[3]; Yu, Sha ^[4]; Patel, Pralit L. ^[4]; Fragkias, Michail ^[5]; Li, Xiaoma ^[6]; Seto, Karen C. ^[7]

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1. Department of Geography, Texas A&,M University, College Station, TX 77843,, Center for Geospatial Science, Applications and Technology (GEOSAT), Texas A&,M University, College Station, TX 77843,
2. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011,
3. Centre for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University, 1051 Budapest, Hungary,
4. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740,
5. Department of Economics, Boise State University, Boise, ID 83725,
6. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011,, Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511,, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, People’s Republic of China
7. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511,

Significance Urban density significantly impacts urban energy use and the quality of life of urban residents. Here, we provide a global-scale analysis of future urban densities and associated energy use in the built environment under different urbanization scenarios. The relative importance of urban density and energy-efficient technologies varies geographically. In developing regions, urban density tends to be the more critical factor in building energy use. Large-scale retrofitting of building stock later rather than sooner results in more energy savings by the middle of the century. Reducing building energy use, improving the local environment, and mitigating climate change can be achieved through systemic efforts that take potential co-benefits and trade-offs of both higher urban density and building energy efficiency into account.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1338627
• Journal Information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 34 Vol. 114; ISSN 0027-8424
• Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English