DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

Abstract

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
  2. Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States). Biocomplexity Inst.
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
Contributing Org.:
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
1335367
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 16; Journal Issue: 23; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Andres, Robert J., Boden, Thomas A., and Higdon, David M.. Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.5194/acp-16-14979-2016.
Andres, Robert J., Boden, Thomas A., & Higdon, David M.. Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14979-2016
Andres, Robert J., Boden, Thomas A., and Higdon, David M.. Mon . "Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14979-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1335367.
@article{osti_1335367,
title = {Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example},
author = {Andres, Robert J. and Boden, Thomas A. and Higdon, David M.},
abstractNote = {Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-16-14979-2016},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)},
number = 23,
volume = 16,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Mon Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 47 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

A 1° × 1° distribution of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement manufacture, 1950-1990
journal, September 1996

  • Andres, Robert J.; Marland, Gregg; Fung, Inez
  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 10, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/96GB01523

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use, 1751-1950
journal, September 1999


Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption
journal, January 2011


A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion
journal, January 2012


A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission
journal, January 2014

  • Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David
  • Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 66, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.3402/tellusb.v66.23616

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Uncertainty of Emissions Gridded by On Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (1950-2013) (V. 2016)
dataset, January 2016

  • Andres, R.; Boden, T.
  • Environmental System Science Data Infrastructure for a Virtual Ecosystem; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)
  • DOI: 10.3334/CDIAC/ffe.AnnualUncertainty.2016

Assessment of uncertainties of an aircraft-based mass balance approach for quantifying urban greenhouse gas emissions
journal, January 2014

  • Cambaliza, M. O. L.; Shepson, P. B.; Caulton, D. R.
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-14-9029-2014

High Resolution Fossil Fuel Combustion CO 2 Emission Fluxes for the United States
journal, July 2009

  • Gurney, Kevin R.; Mendoza, Daniel L.; Zhou, Yuyu
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 43, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1021/es900806c

Quantification of Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions on the Building/Street Scale for a Large U.S. City
journal, October 2012

  • Gurney, Kevin R.; Razlivanov, Igor; Song, Yang
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 46, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1021/es3011282

Uncertainty in gridded CO2 emissions estimates
journal, May 2016

  • Hogue, Susannah; Marland, Eric; Andres, Robert J.
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 5, p. 225-239
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015EF000343

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: a procedure for estimation and results for 1950-1982
journal, September 1984


Improving the temporal and spatial distribution of CO 2 emissions from global fossil fuel emission data sets : SCALING OF FOSSIL FUEL CO
journal, January 2013

  • Nassar, Ray; Napier-Linton, Louis; Gurney, Kevin R.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012JD018196

Recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions:regional trends 1970–2000 and spatial distributionof key sources in 2000
journal, June 2005

  • Olivier, Jos G. J.; Van Aardenne, John A.; Dentener, Frank J.
  • Environmental Sciences, Vol. 2, Issue 2-3
  • DOI: 10.1080/15693430500400345

The role of CO2 emissions from large point sources in emissions totals, responsibility, and policy
journal, December 2014


High-resolution mapping of combustion processes and implications for CO 2 emissions
journal, January 2013


A spatial uncertainty metric for anthropogenic CO 2 emissions
journal, October 2014


Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption
journal, July 2011


A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion
journal, January 2012

  • Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Bréon, F. -M.
  • Biogeosciences Discussions, Vol. 9, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/bgd-9-1299-2012

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: a procedure for estimation and results for 1950-1982
journal, July 1984


Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use, 1751–1950
journal, January 1999

  • Andres, R. J.; Fielding, D. J.; Marland, G.
  • Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 51, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.3402/tellusb.v51i4.16483

Works referencing / citing this record:

On the Ability of Space-Based Passive and Active Remote Sensing Observations of CO 2 to Detect Flux Perturbations to the Carbon Cycle
journal, January 2018

  • Crowell, Sean M. R.; Randolph Kawa, S.; Browell, Edward V.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jd027836

Development of a high-resolution spatial inventory of greenhouse gas emissions for Poland from stationary and mobile sources
journal, February 2018

  • Bun, Rostyslav; Nahorski, Zbigniew; Horabik-Pyzel, Joanna
  • Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 24, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11027-018-9791-2

Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory
journal, July 2019

  • Oda, Tomohiro; Bun, Rostyslav; Kinakh, Vitaliy
  • Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 24, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11027-019-09877-2

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model
journal, September 2017

  • Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso
  • Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 26, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11356-017-0127-7

Comparison of Global Downscaled Versus Bottom‐Up Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions at the Urban Scale in Four U.S. Urban Areas
journal, March 2019

  • Gurney, Kevin R.; Liang, J.; O'Keeffe, D.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018jd028859

Change in Spatial Distribution Patterns and Regeneration of Populus euphratica under Different Surface Soil Salinity Conditions
journal, June 2019


Evaluating nighttime lights and population distribution as proxies for mapping anthropogenic CO 2 emission in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos
journal, September 2019

  • Gaughan, Andrea E.; Oda, Tomohiro; Sorichetta, Alessandro
  • Environmental Research Communications, Vol. 1, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab3d91

Impact of spatial proxies on the representation of bottom-up emission inventories: A satellite-based analysis
journal, January 2017

  • Geng, Guannan; Zhang, Qiang; Martin, Randall V.
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-4131-2017

Southern California megacity CO 2 , CH 4 , and CO flux estimates using ground- and space-based remote sensing and a Lagrangian model
journal, January 2018

  • Hedelius, Jacob K.; Liu, Junjie; Oda, Tomohiro
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-16271-2018

Potential of European 14CO2 observation network to estimate the fossil fuel CO2 emissions via atmospheric inversions
journal, January 2018

  • Wang, Yilong; Broquet, Grégoire; Ciais, Philippe
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018

Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)
journal, January 2018

  • Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Tapiador, Francisco J.
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-1045-2018

EDGAR v4.3.2 Global Atlas of the three major greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1970–2012
journal, January 2019

  • Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Crippa, Monica; Guizzardi, Diego
  • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 11, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-959-2019

Bayesian inverse estimation of urban CO2 emissions: Results from a synthetic data simulation over Salt Lake City, UT
journal, January 2019

  • Kunik, Lewis; Mallia, Derek V.; Gurney, Kevin R.
  • Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, Vol. 7
  • DOI: 10.1525/elementa.375