High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States
Abstract
We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach a new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly,more »
- Authors:
-
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1326511
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 121; Journal Issue: 17; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Mei, Rui, Kao, Shih -Chieh, Gangrade, Sudershan, Naz, Bibi S., and Touma, Danielle. High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/2016JD025285.
Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Mei, Rui, Kao, Shih -Chieh, Gangrade, Sudershan, Naz, Bibi S., & Touma, Danielle. High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025285
Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Mei, Rui, Kao, Shih -Chieh, Gangrade, Sudershan, Naz, Bibi S., and Touma, Danielle. Thu .
"High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025285. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1326511.
@article{osti_1326511,
title = {High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States},
author = {Ashfaq, Moetasim and Rastogi, Deeksha and Mei, Rui and Kao, Shih -Chieh and Gangrade, Sudershan and Naz, Bibi S. and Touma, Danielle},
abstractNote = {We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach a new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift towards shorter and wetter seasons. Altogether, projected changes in the regional hydro-climate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD025285},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 17,
volume = 121,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: present climate evaluations
journal, May 2015
- Vaittinada Ayar, Pradeebane; Vrac, Mathieu; Bastin, Sophie
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 46, Issue 3-4
Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.: NEAR-TERM WESTERN US SNOW
journal, October 2013
- Ashfaq, Moetasim; Ghosh, Subimal; Kao, Shih-Chieh
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 19
The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on climate
journal, May 2006
- Meir, Patrick; Cox, Peter; Grace, John
- Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 21, Issue 5
Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections
journal, January 2008
- Liang, Xin-Zhong; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 8
Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative
journal, November 2015
- Giorgi, Filippo; Gutowski, William J.
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 40, Issue 1
Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable?
journal, April 2010
- Stephens, Graeme L.; Hu, Yongxiang
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions
journal, November 2005
- Barnett, T. P.; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.
- Nature, Vol. 438, Issue 7066
Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures
journal, February 2013
- Berg, Peter; Moseley, Christopher; Haerter, Jan O.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 3
The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions: Lu et al.: Dynamic effect on precipitation extreme
journal, April 2014
- Lu, Jian; Ruby Leung, L.; Yang, Qing
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 8
The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results
journal, September 2012
- Mearns, Linda O.; Arritt, Ray; Biner, Sébastien
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 9
Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram
journal, April 2001
- Taylor, Karl E.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D7
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010
- Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.
- Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282
Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes
journal, July 2008
- Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 8
Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States
journal, April 2009
- Portmann, R. W.; Solomon, S.; Hegerl, G. C.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 18
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
journal, March 2015
- Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 13
Habitat microclimates drive fine-scale variation in extreme temperatures
journal, December 2010
- Suggitt, Andrew J.; Gillingham, Phillipa K.; Hill, Jane K.
- Oikos, Vol. 120, Issue 1
Introduction to special section: Regional Climate Modeling Revisited
journal, March 1999
- Giorgi, Filippo; Mearns, Linda O.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 104, Issue D6
Evaluation of high-resolution simulations of daily-scale temperature and precipitation over the United States
journal, June 2009
- Walker, Megan D.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 7-8
Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S.
journal, January 2009
- Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Walton, Guy
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 23
Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change
journal, October 2005
- Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Pal, J. S.; Trapp, R. J.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, Issue 44
Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change
journal, August 2014
- O’Gorman, Paul A.
- Nature, Vol. 512, Issue 7515
Transient regional climate change: Analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale ensemble experiment over the continental United States: TRANSIENT REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE
journal, December 2011
- Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 116, Issue D24
Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: Representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM
journal, December 2000
- Pal, Jeremy S.; Small, Eric E.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 105, Issue D24
Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States
journal, December 2008
- Daly, Christopher; Halbleib, Michael; Smith, Joseph I.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28, Issue 15
The role of soil ice in land-atmosphere coupling over the United States: A soil moisture–precipitation winter feedback mechanism
journal, January 2011
- Tawfik, Ahmed B.; Steiner, Allison L.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D2
Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington
journal, May 2010
- Salathé, Eric P.; Leung, L. Ruby; Qian, Yun
- Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 1-2
Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants
journal, February 2015
- Kao, Shih-Chieh; Sale, Michael J.; Ashfaq, Moetasim
- Energy, Vol. 80
Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment
report, January 2014
- Melillo, J. M.; Richmond, Terese (T. C.); Yohe, G. W.
The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model
journal, September 2009
- Wehner, Michael F.; Smith, Richard L.; Bala, G.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 2-3
Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of rainfall in a model squall line
journal, April 2012
- Singleton, Andrew; Toumi, Ralf
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 139, Issue 671
RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains
journal, March 2012
- Giorgi, F.; Coppola, E.; Solmon, F.
- Climate Research, Vol. 52
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C
journal, December 2012
- Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Boden, Tom
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations
journal, August 2016
- Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim
- Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 143
Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation caused by a shift in rain type?
journal, June 2009
- Haerter, J. O.; Berg, P.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 6
Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
book, March 2014
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America
journal, September 2009
- Mearns, Linda O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard
- Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 90, Issue 36
Intensification of hot extremes in the United States: INTENSIFICATION OF HOT EXTREMES
journal, August 2010
- Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 15
Climate change in the northeastern US: regional climate model validation and climate change projections
journal, June 2014
- Fan, Fangxing; Bradley, Raymond S.; Rawlins, Michael A.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, Issue 1-2
Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States
journal, January 2010
- Ashfaq, Moetasim; Bowling, Laura C.; Cherkauer, Keith
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D14
Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality
text, January 2012
- Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.
- Columbia University
Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation caused by a shift in rain type?
journal, June 2009
- Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 6
Works referencing / citing this record:
Improving probabilistic hydroclimatic projections through high-resolution convection-permitting climate modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
journal, March 2019
- Wang, S.; Wang, Y.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 3-4
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions
journal, September 2017
- Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010
journal, May 2018
- Forbes, Whitney L.; Mao, Jiafu; Jin, Mingzhou
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 5
Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change
journal, March 2019
- Craig, Michael T.; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Rossol, Michael
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3
Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States
journal, July 2019
- Rastogi, Deeksha; Holladay, James Scott; Evans, Katherine J.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 7
Assessing present and future coastal moderation of extreme heat in the Eastern United States
journal, October 2019
- Raymond, Colin; Mankin, Justin S.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 11
Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas
journal, January 2020
- Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Impacts of Water Consumption in the Haihe Plain on the Climate of the Taihang Mountains, North China
journal, November 2018
- Zou, Jing; Zhan, Chesheng; Zhao, Ruxin
- Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2018