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Title: Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

Abstract

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least inmore » the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9]
  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  2. Univ. of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich (United Kingdom)
  3. Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
  4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology, Graz (Austria)
  6. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  7. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  8. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  9. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); FUJISAWA Corp., Gunma (Japan)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center (NTRC)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1319234
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 1; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1361-9209
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; consumer choice; human behavior; transport; light-duty vehicles; climate change mitigation

Citation Formats

McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Krey, Volker, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Lin, Zhenhong, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., and Fujisawa, Sei. Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003.
McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Krey, Volker, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Lin, Zhenhong, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., & Fujisawa, Sei. Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003
McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Krey, Volker, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Lin, Zhenhong, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., and Fujisawa, Sei. Tue . "Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1319234.
@article{osti_1319234,
title = {Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices},
author = {McCollum, David L. and Wilson, Charlie and Pettifor, Hazel and Ramea, Kalai and Krey, Volker and Riahi, Keywan and Bertram, Christoph and Lin, Zhenhong and Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. and Fujisawa, Sei},
abstractNote = {A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.},
doi = {10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003},
journal = {Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment},
number = 1,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {5}
}

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