U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?
Abstract
The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In conclusion, reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Knoxville, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1287021
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1247777
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; Grant number DE-AC05-000R22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Energy Policy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 85; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS; petroleum dependence; OPEC cartel; world oil market; oil price shocks; oil price elasticity; energy security
Citation Formats
Greene, David L., and Liu, Changzheng. U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.017.
Greene, David L., & Liu, Changzheng. U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.017
Greene, David L., and Liu, Changzheng. Wed .
"U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.017. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1287021.
@article{osti_1287021,
title = {U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?},
author = {Greene, David L. and Liu, Changzheng},
abstractNote = {The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In conclusion, reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.017},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = C,
volume = 85,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 12 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources
journal, January 2009
- Aguilera, Roberto F.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Lagos C. C., Gustavo
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 30, Issue 1
The role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude oil Market: Volatility Changes in the oil Market
journal, June 2012
- Baumeister, Christiane; Peersman, Gert
- Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 28, Issue 7
Evaluating U.S. oil security and import reliance
journal, April 2015
- Brown, Stephen P. A.; Huntington, Hillard G.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 79
Assessing the U.S. oil security premium
journal, July 2013
- Brown, Stephen P. A.; Huntington, Hillard G.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 38
Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior
journal, October 1991
- Dahl, Carol; Yucel, Mine
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 4
World oil demand’s shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions
journal, October 2010
- Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot
- Energy Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 10
US military expenditures to protect the use of Persian Gulf oil for motor vehicles
journal, June 2008
- Delucchi, Mark A.; Murphy, James J.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6
Oil, economic growth and strategic petroleum stocks
journal, December 2014
- Difiglio, Carmine
- Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol. 5
Do Oil Markets Work? Is OPEC Dead?
journal, November 1989
- Gately, Dermot
- Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 14, Issue 1
Strategies for OPEC's Pricing and Output Decisions
journal, July 1995
- Gately, Dermot
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 16, Issue 3
OPEC's Incentives for Faster Output Growth
journal, April 2004
- Gately, Dermot
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 25, Issue 2
The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand
journal, January 2002
- Gately, Dermot; Huntington, Hiliard G.
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 23, Issue 1
A note on OPEC market power and oil prices
journal, April 1991
- Greene, David L.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 13, Issue 2
Measuring energy security: Can the United States achieve oil independence?
journal, April 2010
- Greene, David L.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 4
The outlook for US oil dependence
journal, January 1998
- Greene, David L.; Jones, Donald W.; Leiby, Paul N.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 26, Issue 1
Understanding Crude Oil Prices
journal, April 2009
- Hamilton, James D.
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 30, Issue 2
Crude Oil Market Power—A Shift in Recent Years?
journal, October 2012
- Huppmann, Daniel; Holz, Franziska
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 33, Issue 4
World Economic Outlook, April 2010: Rebalancing Growth
book, June 2010
- International Monetary Fund,
- World Economic Outlook
The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil
journal, January 2011
- Kaufmann, Robert K.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 1
Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior
journal, March 2008
- Kaufmann, Robert K.; Bradford, Andrew; Belanger, Laura H.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 30, Issue 2
Oil demand shocks reconsidered: A cointegrated vector autoregression
journal, January 2014
- Kolodzeij, Marek; Kaufmann, Robert. K.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 41
A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets
journal, January 2005
- Krichene, Noureddine
- IMF Working Papers, Vol. 05, Issue 32
Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications
journal, December 2009
- McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher
- Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 12
World Oil: Market or Mayhem?
journal, August 2009
- Smith, James L.
- Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 23, Issue 3
Import Policy Effects on the Optimal Oil Price
journal, July 1994
- Suranovic, Steven M.
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 15, Issue 3
Dynamic demand and optimal OPEC pricing
journal, July 1990
- Wirl, Franz
- Energy Economics, Vol. 12, Issue 3
Works referencing / citing this record:
The Renewable Fuel Standard in Competitive Equilibrium: Market and Welfare Effects
journal, September 2017
- Moschini, GianCarlo; Lapan, Harvey; Kim, Hyunseok
- American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 99, Issue 5
Energy security role of biofuels in evolving liquid fuel markets: Energy Security Role of Biofuels in Evolving Liquid Fuel Markets
journal, May 2018
- Uría-Martínez, Rocío; Leiby, Paul N.; Brown, Maxwell L.
- Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, Vol. 12, Issue 5