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Title: Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.
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  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
FC02-97ER62402; AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); USDOE Office of Science (SC) National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); USDOE Office of Science (SC) Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); National Science Foundation (NSF)
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; ocean recharge mechanism; warming hiatus; atmospheric moisture; climate variability; early-2000s hiatus; mid-1970s shift; heat-content; model; wind; intensification
OSTI Identifier: