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Title: Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Abstract

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2more » standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [5];  [2];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [2];  [2];  [9];  [7];  [12];  [13];  [14] more »;  [15];  [16];  [7];  [2] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
  2. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  3. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shanghai (China)
  4. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  5. Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA-Saclay), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  6. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Institute of Coal Chemistry
  7. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  8. Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC (United States)
  9. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  10. Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
  11. Peking Univ., Beijing (China)
  12. Center for International Climate and Energy Research (CICERO), Oslo (Norway)
  13. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  14. Beijing Forestry Univ., Beijing (China)
  15. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  16. Nanjing Univ. (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1265649
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature (London)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Nature (London); Journal Volume: 524; Journal Issue: 7565; Journal ID: ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate-change mitigation; Sustainability; Climate-change policy

Citation Formats

Liu, Z., Guan, D., Wei, W., Davis, S., Ciais, P., Bai, J, Peng, S., Zhang, Q., Hubacek, K., Marland, Gregg, Andres, Robert Joseph, Crawford-Brown, D., Lin, J., Zhao, H., Hong, C., Boden, Thomas A., Feng, K., Peters, Glen P., Xi, F., Liu, J., Li, Y., Zhao, Y., Zeng, Ning, and He, K. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1038/nature14677.
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Liu, Z., Guan, D., Wei, W., Davis, S., Ciais, P., Bai, J, Peng, S., Zhang, Q., Hubacek, K., Marland, Gregg, Andres, Robert Joseph, Crawford-Brown, D., Lin, J., Zhao, H., Hong, C., Boden, Thomas A., Feng, K., Peters, Glen P., Xi, F., Liu, J., Li, Y., Zhao, Y., Zeng, Ning, & He, K. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14677
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Liu, Z., Guan, D., Wei, W., Davis, S., Ciais, P., Bai, J, Peng, S., Zhang, Q., Hubacek, K., Marland, Gregg, Andres, Robert Joseph, Crawford-Brown, D., Lin, J., Zhao, H., Hong, C., Boden, Thomas A., Feng, K., Peters, Glen P., Xi, F., Liu, J., Li, Y., Zhao, Y., Zeng, Ning, and He, K. Wed . "Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14677. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1265649.
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@article{osti_1265649,
title = {Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China},
author = {Liu, Z. and Guan, D. and Wei, W. and Davis, S. and Ciais, P. and Bai, J and Peng, S. and Zhang, Q. and Hubacek, K. and Marland, Gregg and Andres, Robert Joseph and Crawford-Brown, D. and Lin, J. and Zhao, H. and Hong, C. and Boden, Thomas A. and Feng, K. and Peters, Glen P. and Xi, F. and Liu, J. and Li, Y. and Zhao, Y. and Zeng, Ning and He, K.},
abstractNote = {Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).},
doi = {10.1038/nature14677},
journal = {Nature (London)},
number = 7565,
volume = 524,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {8}
}
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    When will China achieve its carbon emission peak?
    journal, November 2015

    • Zheng, Tianli; Zhu, Jiangling; Wang, Shaopeng
    • National Science Review, Vol. 3, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwv079

    Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study
    journal, July 2018

    City-level climate change mitigation in China
    text, January 2021

    CO2 Efficiency Break Points for Processes Associated to Wood and Coal Transport and Heating
    journal, October 2019

    • Baťa, Robert; Fuka, Jan; Lešáková, Petra
    • Energies, Vol. 12, Issue 20
    • DOI: 10.3390/en12203864

    Comparison of CO2 emissions reduction efficiency of household fuel consumption in China
    journal, February 2019

    • Xu, Bingjie; Zhong, Ruoyu; Liu, Yifeng
    • Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.3390/su11040979

    Tracking the Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions in China from 1999 to 2015: A Land Use Perspective
    journal, August 2019

    • Wang, Li; Pei, Jie; Geng, Jing
    • Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 17
    • DOI: 10.3390/su11174531

    Global CO2 emissions from cement production, 1928–2017
    journal, January 2018

    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    journal, January 2016

    • Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-8-605-2016

    Global Carbon Budget 2017
    text, January 2018

    Global carbon budget 2015
    text, January 2015

    Global Carbon Budget 2018
    text, January 2018

    • Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.141541

    Estimates of carbon dioxide emissions based on incomplete condition information: a case study of liquefied natural gas in China
    journal, February 2019

    • Li, Lingyue; Yang, Jing; Cao, Yan
    • Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 26, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-04391-z

    Distinguishing Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions From Different Energy Intensive Industrial Sources Using OCO-2 Observations: A Case Study in Northern China
    journal, September 2018

    • Wang, Songhan; Zhang, Yongguang; Hakkarainen, Janne
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 17
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029005

    Dilution effect of the building area on energy intensity in urban residential buildings
    journal, October 2019

    Quantifying coal power plant responses to tighter SO 2 emissions standards in China
    journal, June 2018

    • Karplus, Valerie J.; Zhang, Shuang; Almond, Douglas
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 27
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1800605115

    City-level climate change mitigation in China
    journal, June 2018

    Bio-coal: A renewable and massively producible fuel from lignocellulosic biomass
    journal, January 2020

    Substantial emission reductions from Chinese power plants after the introduction of ultra-low emissions standards
    text, January 2019

    • Tang, L.; Qu, J.; Mi, Z.
    • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
    • DOI: 10.17863/cam.43262

    Global CO 2 emissions from cement production
    journal, January 2018

    Targeted opportunities to address the climate-trade dilemma in China
    text, January 2016

    • Liu, Z.; Davis, Sj; Feng, K.
    • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
    • DOI: 10.17863/cam.30134

    City-level climate change mitigation in China.
    text, January 2018

    • Shan, Yuli; Guan, Dabo; Hubacek, Klaus
    • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
    • DOI: 10.17863/cam.38739

    Consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting with capital stock change highlights dynamics of fast-developing countries.
    text, January 2018

    • Chen, Zhan-Ming; Ohshita, Stephanie; Lenzen, Manfred
    • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
    • DOI: 10.17863/cam.38749

    Global Carbon Budget 2015
    text, January 2015

    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    text, January 2016

    Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009
    text, January 2016

    Cautious Optimism and Incremental Goals Toward Stabilizing Atmospheric CO 2
    journal, December 2018

    • Ballantyne, A. P.; Ciais, P.; Miller, J. B.
    • Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018ef001012

    Informing energy consumption uncertainty: an analysis of energy data revisions
    journal, December 2018

    China's “Exported Carbon” Peak: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications
    text, January 2018

    • Mi, Z.; Meng, Jing; Green, F.
    • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
    • DOI: 10.17863/cam.38744

    Variations of China's emission estimates: response to uncertainties in energy statistics
    journal, January 2017

    • Hong, Chaopeng; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-1227-2017

    Ozone and haze pollution weakens net primary productivity in China
    journal, January 2017

    • Yue, Xu; Unger, Nadine; Harper, Kandice
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017

    Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009
    journal, July 2016

    Global Carbon Budget 2015
    journal, January 2015

    • Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-7-349-2015

    Global Carbon Budget 2019
    text, January 2019

    • Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; Michael, O&Apos;Sullivan,
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.141543

    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    text, January 2016

    • Jain, Atul K.; Doney, Scott C.; Schwinger, Jörg
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.99520
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