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Title: A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

Abstract

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approachmore » projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 PgC°C -1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [5];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [10];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [16];  [17] more »;  [15];  [18];  [19];  [15];  [11];  [8];  [9];  [20] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division
  2. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Center for Ecosystem Science and Society
  3. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Earth and Space Exploration
  4. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division
  6. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  7. Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  8. Alfred Wegener Inst., Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany). Periglacial Research Unit
  9. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)
  10. Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography. Bolin Centre of Climate Research
  11. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). National Snow and Ice Data Center
  12. CNRS and Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement
  13. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Division
  14. Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canada). School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
  15. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Geophysical Inst. Permafrost Lab.
  16. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). US Geological Survey. Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
  17. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  18. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources
  19. Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CNRS and Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement
  20. Univ. of Ontario, Guelph, ON (Canada). Dept. of Integrative Biology
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Contributing Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
1265528
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1257635; OSTI ID: 1378647
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; SC0006982; FC03-97ER62402/A010; ARC-1048997; ARC-1048987
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 373; Journal Issue: 2054; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; permafrost; climate change; carbon-climate feedbacks; methane; carbon–climate feedbacks

Citation Formats

Koven, C. D., Schuur, E. A. G., Schädel, C., Bohn, T. J., Burke, E. J., Chen, G., Chen, X., Ciais, P., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S. S., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Nicolsky, D. J., Olefeldt, D., Peng, S., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K. M., Strauss, J., Treat, C. C., and Turetsky, M. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423.
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Koven, C. D., Schuur, E. A. G., Schädel, C., Bohn, T. J., Burke, E. J., Chen, G., Chen, X., Ciais, P., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S. S., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Nicolsky, D. J., Olefeldt, D., Peng, S., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K. M., Strauss, J., Treat, C. C., & Turetsky, M. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423
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Koven, C. D., Schuur, E. A. G., Schädel, C., Bohn, T. J., Burke, E. J., Chen, G., Chen, X., Ciais, P., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S. S., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Nicolsky, D. J., Olefeldt, D., Peng, S., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K. M., Strauss, J., Treat, C. C., and Turetsky, M. Mon . "A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback". United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1265528.
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@article{osti_1265528,
title = {A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback},
author = {Koven, C. D. and Schuur, E. A. G. and Schädel, C. and Bohn, T. J. and Burke, E. J. and Chen, G. and Chen, X. and Ciais, P. and Grosse, G. and Harden, J. W. and Hayes, D. J. and Hugelius, G. and Jafarov, E. E. and Krinner, G. and Kuhry, P. and Lawrence, D. M. and MacDougall, A. H. and Marchenko, S. S. and McGuire, A. D. and Natali, S. M. and Nicolsky, D. J. and Olefeldt, D. and Peng, S. and Romanovsky, V. E. and Schaefer, K. M. and Strauss, J. and Treat, C. C. and Turetsky, M.},
abstractNote = {We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 PgC°C -1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2014.0423},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2054,
volume = 373,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Oct 05 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Oct 05 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423
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journal, July 2009

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journal, July 2014

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A potential loss of carbon associated with greater plant growth in the European Arctic
journal, June 2012

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Three decades of global methane sources and sinks
journal, September 2013

  • Kirschke, Stefanie; Bousquet, Philippe; Ciais, Philippe
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 10
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Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system
journal, July 2010

  • Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 8
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The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate
journal, August 2014

  • Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003

Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones
journal, November 2012

  • Olefeldt, David; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Crill, Patrick M.
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 2
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Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data
journal, October 2013

  • Schädel, Christina; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Bracho, Rosvel
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12417

Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming: AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PERMAFROST CARBON RELEASE
journal, February 2011

How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?
journal, January 2003

  • Friedlingstein, P.; Dufresne, J. -L.; Cox, P. M.
  • Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 55, Issue 2
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Modeling the large-scale effects of surface moisture heterogeneity on wetland carbon fluxes in the West Siberian Lowland
journal, January 2013

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)
journal, January 2013

Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps
journal, January 2014

Organic-matter quality of deep permafrost carbon – a study from Arctic Siberia
journal, January 2015

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes
journal, January 2011

  • Best, M. J.; Pryor, M.; Clark, D. B.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011

Using in-situ temperature measurements to estimate saturated soil thermal properties by solving a sequence of optimization problems
journal, January 2007

  • Nicolsky, D. J.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Tipenko, G. S.
  • The Cryosphere, Vol. 1, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/tc-1-41-2007
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Quantifying the Effects of Snowpack on Soil Thermal and Carbon Dynamics of the Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems
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    Organic matter characteristics in yedoma and thermokarst deposits on Baldwin Peninsula, west Alaska
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    Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release
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    A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics
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    Controls of soil organic matter on soil thermal dynamics in the northern high latitudes
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    Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density
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    journal, August 2018

    • Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 33
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115
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