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Title: Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Rehovot (Israel)
  2. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0006739
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1259901
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1261695; OSTI ID: 1436579