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Title: Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Abstract

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles California USA, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and EnvironmentHebrew University of Jerusalem Rehovot Israel
  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles California USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1259901
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1261695; OSTI ID: 1436579
Grant/Contract Number:  
DE‐SC0006739; SC0006739
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 43 Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Bernstein, Diana N., and Neelin, J. David. Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016GL069022.
Bernstein, Diana N., & Neelin, J. David. Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters. United States. doi:10.1002/2016GL069022.
Bernstein, Diana N., and Neelin, J. David. Sat . "Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters". United States. doi:10.1002/2016GL069022.
@article{osti_1259901,
title = {Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters},
author = {Bernstein, Diana N. and Neelin, J. David},
abstractNote = {A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069022},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 11,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069022

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Cited by: 6 works
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