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Title: Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: Attribution of the causes through traceability analysis

Abstract

Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models' performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, for two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA') to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, CLM-CASA' predicted ~ 31 % larger carbon storage capacity than CABLE. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τE), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τE or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA' simulated 37 % higher NPP than CABLE. On the other hand, τE, which was a function of the baseline carbon residence time (τ'E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA'. This difference in τE was mainly caused by longer τ'E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA'), and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23 vs. 16 %).more » Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ'E. Finally and overall, the traceability analysis showed that the major causes of different carbon storage estimations were found to be parameters setting related to carbon input and baseline carbon residence times between two models.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [5];  [6]
  1. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab., College Park, MD (United States)
  2. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China)
  3. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab., College Park, MD (United States)
  5. CSIRO Ocean and Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)
  6. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; National Science Foundation (NSF)
Contributing Org.:
East China Normal Univ. (ECNU), Shanghai (China); Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC (Canada); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, VIC (Australia)
OSTI Identifier:
1256395
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1330583
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115823
Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; SC0008270; DEB 0743778; DEB 0840964; EPS 0919466; EF 1137293
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; traceability framework; partitioning coefficients; transfer coefficients; carbon storage; ecosystem carbon residence time; environmental scalars; 58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Rafique, Rashid, Xia, Jianyang, Hararuk, Oleksandra, Asrar, Ghassem R., Leng, Guoyong, Wang, Yingping, and Luo, Yiqi. Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: Attribution of the causes through traceability analysis. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016.
Rafique, Rashid, Xia, Jianyang, Hararuk, Oleksandra, Asrar, Ghassem R., Leng, Guoyong, Wang, Yingping, & Luo, Yiqi. Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: Attribution of the causes through traceability analysis. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016
Rafique, Rashid, Xia, Jianyang, Hararuk, Oleksandra, Asrar, Ghassem R., Leng, Guoyong, Wang, Yingping, and Luo, Yiqi. Fri . "Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: Attribution of the causes through traceability analysis". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1256395.
@article{osti_1256395,
title = {Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: Attribution of the causes through traceability analysis},
author = {Rafique, Rashid and Xia, Jianyang and Hararuk, Oleksandra and Asrar, Ghassem R. and Leng, Guoyong and Wang, Yingping and Luo, Yiqi},
abstractNote = {Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models' performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, for two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA') to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, CLM-CASA' predicted ~ 31 % larger carbon storage capacity than CABLE. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τE), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τE or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA' simulated 37 % higher NPP than CABLE. On the other hand, τE, which was a function of the baseline carbon residence time (τ'E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA'. This difference in τE was mainly caused by longer τ'E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA'), and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23 vs. 16 %). Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ'E. Finally and overall, the traceability analysis showed that the major causes of different carbon storage estimations were found to be parameters setting related to carbon input and baseline carbon residence times between two models.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-7-649-2016},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 3,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {7}
}

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