A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations
Abstract
Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Here, the model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.
- Authors:
-
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1255375
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1402158
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-115451
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; KP1703010
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; atmospheric rivers; extreme precipitation; climate change; global warming; moisture transport; flooding
Citation Formats
Hagos, Samson M., Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Yoon, Jin‐Ho, Lu, Jian, and Gao, Yang. A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/2015GL067392.
Hagos, Samson M., Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Yoon, Jin‐Ho, Lu, Jian, & Gao, Yang. A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067392
Hagos, Samson M., Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Yoon, Jin‐Ho, Lu, Jian, and Gao, Yang. Wed .
"A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067392. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1255375.
@article{osti_1255375,
title = {A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations},
author = {Hagos, Samson M. and Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby and Yoon, Jin‐Ho and Lu, Jian and Gao, Yang},
abstractNote = {Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Here, the model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067392},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 13 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Wed Jan 13 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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