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Title: Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

Abstract

We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in themore » precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15]
  1. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  2. Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate
  3. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
  4. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA
  5. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping (Sweden). Rossby Centre
  6. Environment Canada, Victoria British Columbia (Canada). Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
  7. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  9. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences,
  10. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka (Japan). Research Institute for Global Change
  11. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Sciences
  12. CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France and CNRS, Toulouse (France)
  13. Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki (Japan). Dept. of Climate Research
  14. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)
  15. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1252214
Grant/Contract Number:  
GA01101; AGS-1228302; NA12OAR4310075; NNX13AM18G; CATER 2013-3142; ATM-0425247; OCI-1053575; TG-ATM120034
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 120; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; diabatic processes; Madden-Julian Oscillation; modeling; convection; Year of Tropical convection; uncertainties

Citation Formats

Xavier, Prince K., Petch, Jon C., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Woolnough, Steve J., Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E., Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M., Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S., Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, and Wang, Hailan. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2014JD022718.
Xavier, Prince K., Petch, Jon C., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Woolnough, Steve J., Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E., Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M., Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S., Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, & Wang, Hailan. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. United States. doi:10.1002/2014JD022718.
Xavier, Prince K., Petch, Jon C., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Woolnough, Steve J., Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E., Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M., Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S., Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, and Wang, Hailan. Tue . "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range". United States. doi:10.1002/2014JD022718. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1252214.
@article{osti_1252214,
title = {Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range},
author = {Xavier, Prince K. and Petch, Jon C. and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Woolnough, Steve J. and Jiang, Xianan and Waliser, Duane E. and Caian, Mihaela and Cole, Jason and Hagos, Samson M. and Hannay, Cecile and Kim, Daehyun and Miyakawa, Tomoki and Pritchard, Michael S. and Roehrig, Romain and Shindo, Eiki and Vitart, Frederic and Wang, Hailan},
abstractNote = {We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022718},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 10,
volume = 120,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}

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Cited by: 14 works
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Analytic Representation of the Large-Scale Organization of Tropical Convection
    journal, July 2004


    Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales
    journal, July 2008

    • Bechtold, Peter; Köhler, Martin; Jung, Thomas
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 634
    • DOI: 10.1002/qj.289

    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Synthesis and summary: MJO PHYSICAL PROCESSES: SYNTHESIS
    journal, May 2015

    • Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Jiang, Xianan; Xavier, Prince K.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1002/2015jd023196

    Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: The application of process-based diagnostics
    journal, November 2012

    • Hirons, L. C.; Inness, P.; Vitart, F.
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 139, Issue 675
    • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2059

    Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks: PREDICTABILITY OF MONSOON BREAKS
    journal, September 2003

    • Goswami, B. N.; Xavier, Prince K.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 18
    • DOI: 10.1029/2003gl017810

    Observed Characteristics of the MJO Relative to Maximum Rainfall
    journal, July 2007

    • Benedict, James J.; Randall, David A.
    • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 64, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1175/jas3968.1

    A Simple Dynamical Model with Features of Convective Momentum Transport
    journal, February 2009

    • Majda, Andrew J.; Stechmann, Samuel N.
    • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 66, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1175/2008jas2805.1

    Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific
    journal, July 1971


    Structural Evolution in Heating Profiles of the MJO in Global Reanalyses and TRMM Retrievals
    journal, February 2011


    Thermodynamic control of tropical rainfall
    journal, April 2000

    • Raymond, D. J.
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 126, Issue 564
    • DOI: 10.1002/qj.49712656406

    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening: DIABATIC PROCESSES IN MJO HINDCASTS
    journal, May 2015

    • Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Woolnough, Steven J.; Jiang, Xianan
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022374

    Influence of cloud-radiation interaction on simulating tropical intraseasonal oscillation with an atmospheric general circulation model
    journal, July 2001

    • Lee, Myong-In; Kang, In-Sik; Kim, Jong-Khun
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D13
    • DOI: 10.1029/2001jd900143

    Clouds and Climate: Sensitivity of Simple Systems
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    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations: KEY PHYSICS IN MODELING THE MJO
    journal, May 2015

    • Jiang, Xianan; Waliser, Duane E.; Xavier, Prince K.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022375

    Madden-Julian Oscillation
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    Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive: GISS MODEL-E2 CMIP5 SIMULATIONS
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    journal, January 2012

    • Yukimoto, Seiji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Hosaka, Masahiro
    • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 90A, Issue 0
    • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-a02

    Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans
    journal, April 2004


    Modelling suppressed and active convection. Comparing a numerical weather prediction, cloud-resolving and single-column model
    journal, January 2007

    • Petch, J. C.; Willett, M.; Wong, R. Y.
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    • DOI: 10.1002/qj.109

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    Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6
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    Multiscale Convective Organization and the YOTC Virtual Global Field Campaign
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    The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
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    EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model
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    On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models
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    Evaluation of the Simulated Interannual and Subseasonal Variability in an AMIP-Style Simulation Using the CSU Multiscale Modeling Framework
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    Climate Model Forecast Experiments for TOGA COARE
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