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Title: Sensitivity of future U.S. water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: A case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework

Here, one of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial, and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feed stocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water interact with future impacts of climatic change on water supplies to impinge on water management decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently tools were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify the sensitivity of future deficits in surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper illustrates the capabilities of the framework with sample results for a river sub-basin in the U.S. state of Georgia.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [1] ;  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab., Battelle Seattle Research Center, Seattle, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-105762
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; PII: 1602
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 136; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
OSTI Identifier:
1250380
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1251562