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Title: North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

Abstract

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climatemore » models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [1];  [11];  [4]
  1. Univ. of California Davis, Davis, CA (United States)
  2. Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  4. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  5. Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA (United States)
  6. NASA GSFC Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  7. Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
  8. Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
  9. McGill Univ., Montreal, QC (Canada)
  10. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  11. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1244795
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1252457
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-104682
Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575; KP1703010
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; SC0004942; SC0012554; SC0006643
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 46; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; large scale meteorological patterns for temperature extremes; heat waves; hot spells; cold air outbreaks; cold spells; statistics of temperature extremes; dynamics of heat waves; dynamics of cold air outbreaks; dynamical modeling of temperature extremes; statistical modeling of extremes; Trends in temperature extremes

Citation Formats

Grotjahn, Richard, Black, Robert, Leung, Ruby, Wehner, Michael F., Barlow, Mathew, Bosilovich, Michael, Gershunov, Alexander, Gutowski, Jr., William J., Gyakum, John R., Katz, Richard W., Lee, Yun -Young, Lim, Young -Kwon, and Prabhat, -. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6.
Grotjahn, Richard, Black, Robert, Leung, Ruby, Wehner, Michael F., Barlow, Mathew, Bosilovich, Michael, Gershunov, Alexander, Gutowski, Jr., William J., Gyakum, John R., Katz, Richard W., Lee, Yun -Young, Lim, Young -Kwon, & Prabhat, -. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6.
Grotjahn, Richard, Black, Robert, Leung, Ruby, Wehner, Michael F., Barlow, Mathew, Bosilovich, Michael, Gershunov, Alexander, Gutowski, Jr., William J., Gyakum, John R., Katz, Richard W., Lee, Yun -Young, Lim, Young -Kwon, and Prabhat, -. Fri . "North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends". United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1244795.
@article{osti_1244795,
title = {North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends},
author = {Grotjahn, Richard and Black, Robert and Leung, Ruby and Wehner, Michael F. and Barlow, Mathew and Bosilovich, Michael and Gershunov, Alexander and Gutowski, Jr., William J. and Gyakum, John R. and Katz, Richard W. and Lee, Yun -Young and Lim, Young -Kwon and Prabhat, -},
abstractNote = {This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 3,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}

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Probability of US heat waves affected by a subseasonal planetary wave pattern
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Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping
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The Development of Arctic Air Masses in Northwest Canada and Their Behavior in a Warming Climate
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A Thermodynamic Analysis of an Intense North American Arctic Air Mass
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Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
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The representative concentration pathways: an overview
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The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming
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On the Use of “Inflation” in Statistical Downscaling
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Extreme Cold Outbreaks in the United States and Europe, 1948–99
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Development of Global Hourly 0.5° Land Surface Air Temperature Datasets
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Predicted Twenty-First-Century Changes in Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the Parallel Climate Model
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Sources of uncertainty in the extreme value statistics of climate data
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Anomalous Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season: Long-Term Trends, Low-Frequency Mode Modulation, and Representation in CMIP5 Simulations
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Cooling in the Lower Atmosphere and the Structure of Polar Continental air
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Formation of Polar Anticyclones
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CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States
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Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Impact of the Horizontal Heat Flux in the Mixed Layer on an Extreme Heat Event in North China: A Case Study
    journal, December 2018


    Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast
    journal, May 2017


    The structure and large-scale organization of extreme cold waves over the conterminous United States
    journal, March 2017


    Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns
    journal, May 2018