Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models
Abstract
We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects over the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.
- Authors:
-
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1239215
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-517031
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 39; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Andrews, Timothy, Gregory, Jonathan M., Webb, Mark J., and Taylor, Karl E. Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. United States: N. p., 2012.
Web. doi:10.1029/2012GL051607.
Andrews, Timothy, Gregory, Jonathan M., Webb, Mark J., & Taylor, Karl E. Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607
Andrews, Timothy, Gregory, Jonathan M., Webb, Mark J., and Taylor, Karl E. Tue .
"Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1239215.
@article{osti_1239215,
title = {Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models},
author = {Andrews, Timothy and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Webb, Mark J. and Taylor, Karl E.},
abstractNote = {We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects over the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL051607},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 9,
volume = 39,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012},
month = {Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012}
}
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- Heinze, Christoph; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3
The path to CAM6: coupled simulations with CAM5.4 and CAM5.5
journal, January 2018
- Bogenschutz, Peter A.; Gettelman, Andrew; Hannay, Cecile
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100
text, January 2016
- Banerjee, A.; Maycock, A. C.; Archibald, A. T.
- Karlsruhe
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets: Characterizing half-a-degree difference
journal, January 2017
- James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model
journal, March 2017
- Wolf, Eric T.; Shields, Aomawa L.; Kopparapu, Ravi K.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 837, Issue 2
Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations
journal, January 2013
- Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 6
Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery
posted_content, January 2018
- Meul, Stefanie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kroger, Philipp
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
Using machine learning to build temperature-based ozone parameterizations for climate sensitivity simulations
text, January 2018
- Nowack, Peer; Braesicke, Peter; Haigh, Joanna
- Karlsruhe
Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity? A Southern Hemisphere perspective
text, January 2014
- Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.
- Columbia University
Impact of internal variability on climate change for the upcoming decades: analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles
journal, September 2019
- Rondeau-Genesse, Gabriel; Braun, Marco
- Climatic Change, Vol. 156, Issue 3
Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO 2
journal, November 2014
- Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 47
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
text, January 2019
- Heinze, Christoph; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- ETH Zurich
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
journal, January 2013
- Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 2
Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51
journal, January 2016
- Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Pozzer, Andrea
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 3
Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change
text, January 2016
- Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang
- Columbia University
The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity Estimates
text, January 2018
- Nowack, Peer J.; Abraham, N. Luke; Braesicke, Peter
- Karlsruhe
An evaluation of cloud vertical structure in three reanalyses against CloudSat/cloud‐aerosol lidar and infrared pathfinder satellite observations
journal, May 2019
- Miao, Hao; Wang, Xiaocong; Liu, Yimin
- Atmospheric Science Letters
Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices
journal, June 2019
- Blanco‐Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 15
Past and future changes in regional crop water requirements in Northwest China
journal, December 2018
- Song, Xiaoyan; Song, Songbai; Li, Zhi
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 137, Issue 3-4
The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity Estimates
text, January 2018
- Nowack, Peer; Abraham, Luke; Braesicke, P.
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Quantifying uncertainty from aerosol and atmospheric parameters and their impact on climate sensitivity
journal, January 2018
- Fletcher, Christopher G.; Kravitz, Ben; Badawy, Bakr
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 23
Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models
journal, January 2013
- Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Orr, J. C.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 10
The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6
journal, January 2019
- Wu, Tongwen; Lu, Yixiong; Fang, Yongjie
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Earth system chemistry integrated modelling (ESCiMo) with the modular earth submodel system (MESSy) version 2.51
text, January 2016
- Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Pozzer, Andrea
- Karlsruhe