Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem
Abstract
It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. As a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.
- Authors:
-
- Central New Mexico Community College, Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Thomas Paez Consulting, Sedona, AZ (United States)
- Timothy Hasselman Consulting, Palos Verdes Estates, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1239147
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-2015-10560J
Journal ID: ISSN 2377-2158; 614984
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 1; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2377-2158
- Publisher:
- ASME
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 42 ENGINEERING; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; failure; probability; testing; calibration; modeling; finite element model
Citation Formats
Paez, Paul J., Paez, Thomas L., and Hasselman, Timothy K. Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1115/1.4032370.
Paez, Paul J., Paez, Thomas L., & Hasselman, Timothy K. Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem. United States. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4032370
Paez, Paul J., Paez, Thomas L., and Hasselman, Timothy K. Fri .
"Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem". United States. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4032370. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1239147.
@article{osti_1239147,
title = {Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem},
author = {Paez, Paul J. and Paez, Thomas L. and Hasselman, Timothy K.},
abstractNote = {It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. As a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.},
doi = {10.1115/1.4032370},
journal = {Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification},
number = 1,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Feb 19 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Fri Feb 19 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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