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Title: Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

Abstract

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximummore » Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1237556
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-569456
Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-07NA27344
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 25 ENERGY STORAGE; uncertainty quantification; CO2 sequestrian; risk assessment; reactive transport; global sampling

Citation Formats

Sun, Y., Tong, C., Trainor-Guitten, W. J., Lu, C., Mansoor, K., and Carroll, S. A. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration. United States: N. p., 2012. Web. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004.
Sun, Y., Tong, C., Trainor-Guitten, W. J., Lu, C., Mansoor, K., & Carroll, S. A. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration. United States. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004.
Sun, Y., Tong, C., Trainor-Guitten, W. J., Lu, C., Mansoor, K., and Carroll, S. A. Thu . "Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration". United States. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1237556.
@article{osti_1237556,
title = {Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration},
author = {Sun, Y. and Tong, C. and Trainor-Guitten, W. J. and Lu, C. and Mansoor, K. and Carroll, S. A.},
abstractNote = {The risk of CO2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
number = ,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2012},
month = {12}
}

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