Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004

Title: Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO₂ Geological Sequestration

Abstract

The risk of CO₂ leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO₂ geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO₂ is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO₂/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO₂ and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO₂ plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking watermore »« less

Authors:

Sun, Y. ^[1]; Tong, C. ^[1]; Trainor-Guitten, W. J. ^[1]; Lu, C. ^[1]; Mansoor, K. ^[1]; Carroll, S. A. ^[1]

Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Publication Date:: 2012-12-20

Research Org.:: Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1237556

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-569456
Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 58 GEOSCIENCES; 25 ENERGY STORAGE; uncertainty quantification; CO2 sequestrian; risk assessment; reactive transport; global sampling

Citation Formats


                    Sun, Y., Tong, C., Trainor-Guitten, W. J., Lu, C., Mansoor, K., and Carroll, S. A. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration.  United States: N. p., 2012. 
        Web.  doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004.

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                    Sun, Y., Tong, C., Trainor-Guitten, W. J., Lu, C., Mansoor, K., & Carroll, S. A. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration.  United States.  doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004.

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                    Sun, Y., Tong, C., Trainor-Guitten, W. J., Lu, C., Mansoor, K., and Carroll, S. A. Thu .  
        "Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration".  United States.  doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1237556.

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@article{osti_1237556,

  title        = {Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration},

  author       = {Sun, Y. and Tong, C. and Trainor-Guitten, W. J. and Lu, C. and Mansoor, K. and Carroll, S. A.},

  abstractNote = {The risk of CO2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004},

  journal      = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},

  number       = ,

  volume       = 12,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2012},

  month        = {12}

}

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Geochemical sensitivity to CO ₂ leakage: detection in potable aquifers at carbon sequestration sites : Modeling and Analysis: Geochemical sensitivity to CO
journal, January 2014

Yang, Changbing; Hovorka, Susan D.; Young, Michael H.
Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Vol. 4, Issue 3
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.1406

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Title: Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

Abstract

Citation Formats

Geochemical sensitivity to CO 2 leakage: detection in potable aquifers at carbon sequestration sites : Modeling and Analysis: Geochemical sensitivity to CO journal, January 2014

Title: Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO₂ Geological Sequestration

Geochemical sensitivity to CO ₂ leakage: detection in potable aquifers at carbon sequestration sites : Modeling and Analysis: Geochemical sensitivity to CO
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