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Title: Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

Abstract

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes. The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1237543
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-637412
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-07NA27344
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Hao, Zengchao, AghaKouchak, Amir, and Phillips, Thomas J. Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034014.
Hao, Zengchao, AghaKouchak, Amir, & Phillips, Thomas J. Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034014.
Hao, Zengchao, AghaKouchak, Amir, and Phillips, Thomas J. Thu . "Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034014. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1237543.
@article{osti_1237543,
title = {Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes},
author = {Hao, Zengchao and AghaKouchak, Amir and Phillips, Thomas J.},
abstractNote = {While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes. The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034014},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {2013},
month = {8}
}

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