DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate

Abstract

© 2014. The Authors. The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models. Key Points: Multimodel comparison of tropical cyclone activity in global climate models Geographic distribution of the TC activity is similar to observed Most models produce tropical cyclones weaker than observed

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [6];  [14];  [15];  [2]
  1. Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York New York USA
  2. Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA
  3. Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York New York USA, Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University New York New York USA
  4. Center for Climate System Research, Columbia University New York New York USA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York New York USA
  5. Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA, Now at Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
  6. NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center College Park Maryland USA
  7. Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University Tallahassee Florida USA
  8. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, GMAO GreenBelt Maryland USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/I.M. Systems Group Greenbelt Maryland USA
  9. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu Hawaii USA
  10. National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado USA
  11. Met Office, Hadley Center Devon UK
  12. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Bologna Italy, Centro Euro‐Mediterraneosui Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna Italy
  13. NCAS‐Climate, University of Reading Reading UK
  14. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California USA
  15. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton New Jersey USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1237126
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1213530; OSTI ID: 1237127; OSTI ID: 1407223
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; AGS-1143959; NASA NNX09AK34
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Journal Volume: 6 Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Shaevitz, Daniel A., Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Jonas, Jeffrey A., Kim, Daehyun, Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Lim, Young‐Kwon, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., Zhao, Ming, and Henderson, Naomi. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1002/2014MS000372.
Shaevitz, Daniel A., Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Jonas, Jeffrey A., Kim, Daehyun, Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Lim, Young‐Kwon, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., Zhao, Ming, & Henderson, Naomi. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000372
Shaevitz, Daniel A., Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Jonas, Jeffrey A., Kim, Daehyun, Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Lim, Young‐Kwon, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., Zhao, Ming, and Henderson, Naomi. Fri . "Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000372.
@article{osti_1237126,
title = {Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate},
author = {Shaevitz, Daniel A. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Sobel, Adam H. and Jonas, Jeffrey A. and Kim, Daehyun and Kumar, Arun and LaRow, Timothy E. and Lim, Young‐Kwon and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Reed, Kevin A. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Wang, Hui and Wehner, Michael F. and Zhao, Ming and Henderson, Naomi},
abstractNote = {© 2014. The Authors. The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models. Key Points: Multimodel comparison of tropical cyclone activity in global climate models Geographic distribution of the TC activity is similar to observed Most models produce tropical cyclones weaker than observed},
doi = {10.1002/2014MS000372},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = 4,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Fri Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000372

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 101 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis
journal, January 2012


T ROPICAL C YCLONES
journal, May 2003


Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
journal, August 2011

  • Scoccimarro, Enrico; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4104.1

An Objective Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Size Climatology
journal, January 2014


Tropical cyclones and climate change
journal, February 2010

  • Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo779

How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?
journal, January 2007


Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global-Scale Forcings
journal, June 2014

  • Villarini, Gabriele; Lavers, David A.; Scoccimarro, Enrico
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00780.1

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations
journal, January 2011

  • Walters, D. N.; Best, M. J.; Bushell, A. C.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011

An Analysis of the Effect of Global Warming on the Intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes Using a GCM with Statistical Refinement
journal, December 2010


Equilibrium Tropical Cyclone Size in an Idealized State of Axisymmetric Radiative–Convective Equilibrium*
journal, May 2014

  • Chavas, Daniel R.; Emanuel, Kerry
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 71, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0155.1

Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive: GISS MODEL-E2 CMIP5 SIMULATIONS
journal, March 2014

  • Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Max; Nazarenko, Larissa
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013MS000265

Investigating Global Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hierarchy of AGCMs: The Role of Model Resolution
journal, January 2013


Tracking Scheme Dependence of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Response to Idealized Climate Simulations
journal, December 2014


Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models
journal, December 2013


Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
journal, April 2009


The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO 2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures
journal, October 2011


Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations
journal, July 2008


Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM
journal, December 2009

  • Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1

Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format
journal, October 2013


Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model
journal, October 1982


Objective Detection of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Analyses
journal, August 1997


Climate Simulations Using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km Grid
journal, January 2012

  • Mizuta, Ryo; Yoshimura, Hiromasa; Murakami, Hiroyuki
  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 90A, Issue 0
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A12

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM
journal, May 2012


Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models
journal, December 2002


Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
journal, January 2003


The Interannual Variability in the Genesis Location of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific
journal, October 2002


Response of Tropical Cyclones to Idealized Climate Change Experiments in a Global High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
journal, October 2013


ENSO and Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity simulated in a CGCM
journal, November 2007


Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall over Mozambique
journal, December 2003


Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analyses
journal, January 2007


Intense Precipitation Events Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Response to a Warmer Climate and Increased CO 2
journal, June 2014

  • Scoccimarro, Enrico; Gualdi, Silvio; Villarini, Gabriele
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00065.1

Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP: SEASONAL FORECAST OF TROPICAL STORMS
journal, August 2007

  • Vitart, F.; Huddleston, M. R.; Déqué, M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030740

Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
journal, January 2010


Spherical Nonparametric Estimators Applied to the UGAMP Model Integration for AMIP
journal, December 1996


The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1
journal, November 2014

  • Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Li, Fuyu
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013MS000276

Adaptive Constraints for Feature Tracking
journal, June 1999


Observed versus GCM-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using a Spatial Lattice
journal, November 2013


On the size distribution of Atlantic tropical cyclones
journal, January 2009

  • Dean, L.; Emanuel, K. A.; Chavas, D. R.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009GL039051

A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models
journal, August 2005


The Influence of Natural Climate Variability on Tropical Cyclones, and Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity
book, April 2010

  • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Barnston, Anthony G.
  • World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate
  • DOI: 10.1142/9789814293488_0011

Tropical Circulation in a Time-Integration of a Global Model of the Atmosphere
journal, July 1970


The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
journal, March 2014


A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size: TROPICAL CYCLONE SIZE DISTRIBUTION
journal, September 2010

  • Chavas, D. R.; Emanuel, K. A.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 18
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044558

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
journal, July 2013


Simulation of Interannual Variability of Tropical Storm Frequency in an Ensemble of GCM Integrations
journal, April 1997