Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics
Abstract
Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon–nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost region is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. The future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1235158
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1221823
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; FC03-97ER62402/A010; AGS-1048996; ARC-1048987
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Volume: 112 Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424
- Publisher:
- National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; carbon cycle; Earth system models; cryosphere; soil organic matter; permafrost thaw
Citation Formats
Koven, Charles D., Lawrence, David M., and Riley, William J.. Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1073/pnas.1415123112.
Koven, Charles D., Lawrence, David M., & Riley, William J.. Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics. United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112
Koven, Charles D., Lawrence, David M., and Riley, William J.. Mon .
"Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics". United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112.
@article{osti_1235158,
title = {Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics},
author = {Koven, Charles D. and Lawrence, David M. and Riley, William J.},
abstractNote = {Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon–nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost region is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. The future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1415123112},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
number = 12,
volume = 112,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {3}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 189 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Long-term CO2 production following permafrost thaw
journal, July 2013
- Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders; Schädel, Christina
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 10
Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing: C AND N VULERABLITIES OF THAWING
journal, August 2012
- Harden, Jennifer W.; Koven, Charles D.; Ping, Chien-Lu
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 15
A frozen feast: thawing permafrost increases plant-available nitrogen in subarctic peatlands
journal, March 2012
- Keuper, Frida; Bodegom, Peter M.; Dorrepaal, Ellen
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, Issue 6
Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the Northern High Latitudes in the 21st century from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project model projections
journal, February 2010
- Qian, Haifeng; Joseph, Renu; Zeng, Ning
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 2
Comparing observations and process-based simulations of biosphere-atmosphere exchanges on multiple timescales: MODEL EVALUATION ON MULTIPLE TIMESCALES
journal, April 2010
- Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Jung, M.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 115, Issue G2
Soil Carbon stocks and their rates of accumulation and loss in a boreal forest landscape
journal, December 1998
- Rapalee, Gloria; Trumbore, Susan E.; Davidson, Eric A.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Metagenomic analysis of a permafrost microbial community reveals a rapid response to thaw
journal, November 2011
- Mackelprang, Rachel; Waldrop, Mark P.; DeAngelis, Kristen M.
- Nature, Vol. 480, Issue 7377
Quantifying Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
journal, October 2009
- Gregory, J. M.; Jones, C. D.; Cadule, P.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 19
Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models
journal, August 2013
- Slater, Andrew G.; Lawrence, David M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15
Modeling physical and biogeochemical controls over carbon accumulation in a boreal forest soil: MODELING BOREAL SOIL CARBON CYCLING
journal, May 2006
- Carrasco, Jonathan J.; Neff, Jason C.; Harden, Jennifer W.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 111, Issue G2
Large N2O emissions from cryoturbated peat soil in tundra
journal, February 2009
- Repo, Maija E.; Susiluoto, Sanna; Lind, Saara E.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 3
Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming
journal, January 2012
- Schneider von Deimling, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Levermann, A.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Increased snow depth affects microbial activity and nitrogen mineralization in two Arctic tundra communities
journal, February 2004
- Schimel, Joshua P.; Bilbrough, Carol; Welker, Jeffery M.
- Soil Biology and Biochemistry, Vol. 36, Issue 2
Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, August 2013
- Arora, Vivek K.; Boer, George J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15
Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming: AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PERMAFROST CARBON RELEASE
journal, February 2011
- Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Bruhwiler, Lori
- Tellus B, Vol. 63, Issue 2
Barriers to predicting changes in global terrestrial methane fluxes: analyses using CLM4Me, a methane biogeochemistry model integrated in CESM
journal, January 2011
- Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Lawrence, D. M.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 8, Issue 7
A new fractional snow-covered area parameterization for the Community Land Model and its effect on the surface energy balance: CLM SNOW COVER FRACTION
journal, November 2012
- Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D21
The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover
journal, April 2008
- Jenkinson, D. S.; Coleman, K.
- European Journal of Soil Science, Vol. 59, Issue 2
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C 4 MIP Model Intercomparison
journal, July 2006
- Friedlingstein, P.; Cox, P.; Betts, R.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 14
Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data
journal, October 2013
- Schädel, Christina; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Bracho, Rosvel
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, Issue 2
Global Change and the Carbon Balance of Arctic Ecosystems
journal, June 1992
- Shaver, Gaius R.; Billings, W. D.; Chapin,, F. Stuart
- BioScience, Vol. 42, Issue 6
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
journal, August 2011
- Koven, C. D.; Ringeval, B.; Friedlingstein, P.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 36
An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions
journal, January 2012
- McGuire, A. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Hayes, D.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 8
Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate
journal, July 2010
- Beer, C.; Reichstein, M.; Tomelleri, E.
- Science, Vol. 329, Issue 5993
Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, March 2013
- Koven, Charles D.; Riley, William J.; Stern, Alex
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 6
The impact of permafrost thawing on the carbon dynamics of tundra
journal, February 1997
- Waelbroeck, Claire; Monfray, P.; Oechel, W. C.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 24, Issue 3
Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960
journal, August 2013
- Graven, H. D.; Keeling, R. F.; Piper, S. C.
- Science, Vol. 341, Issue 6150
Simulation of Present-Day and Future Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground Conditions in CCSM4
journal, April 2012
- Lawrence, David M.; Slater, Andrew G.; Swenson, Sean C.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 7
Vegetation and climate controls on potential CO2, DOC and DON production in northern latitude soils
journal, September 2002
- Neff, Jason C.; Hooper, David U.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Persistence of soil organic matter as an ecosystem property
journal, October 2011
- Schmidt, Michael W. I.; Torn, Margaret S.; Abiven, Samuel
- Nature, Vol. 478, Issue 7367
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application
journal, January 2010
- Lamarque, J. -F.; Bond, T. C.; Eyring, V.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 15
Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset: UPDATED HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDS OF MONTHLY CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS
journal, May 2013
- Harris, I.; Jones, P. D.; Osborn, T. J.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 3
Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003–2100: implications for climate feedbacks
journal, June 2009
- Euskirchen, E. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Chapin, F. S.
- Ecological Applications, Vol. 19, Issue 4
The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra
journal, May 2009
- Schuur, Edward A. G.; Vogel, Jason G.; Crummer, Kathryn G.
- Nature, Vol. 459, Issue 7246
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
journal, March 1996
- Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 3
The use of radiocarbon to constrain current and future soil organic matter turnover and transport in a temperate forest
journal, March 2014
- Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Beer, Christian; Schrumpf, Marion
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, Issue 3
Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100
journal, May 2012
- Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9
Sensitivity of Boreal Forest Carbon Balance to Soil Thaw
journal, January 1998
- Goulden, M. L.; Wofsy, S. C.; Harden, J. W.
- Science, Vol. 279, Issue 5348
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic
journal, January 2014
- Fisher, J. B.; Sikka, M.; Oechel, W. C.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 15
Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region: SOIL ORGANIC CARBON POOLS
journal, June 2009
- Tarnocai, C.; Canadell, J. G.; Schuur, E. A. G.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 23, Issue 2
On the formation of high-latitude soil carbon stocks: Effects of cryoturbation and insulation by organic matter in a land surface model
journal, January 2009
- Koven, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Ciais, P.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 21
Improved simulation of the terrestrial hydrological cycle in permafrost regions by the Community Land Model: IMPROVED CLM COLD-REGION HYDROLOGY
journal, March 2012
- Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lee, Hanna
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 4, Issue 3