Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming
Abstract
California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.
- Authors:
-
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1229998
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-112803
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723; KP1703020
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; water cycle extremes; California; drought; climate; CO2; earth sciences; atmospheric science; climate science
Citation Formats
Yoon, Jin -Ho, Wang, S. -Y. Simon, Gillies, Robert R., Kravitz, Benjamin S., Hipps, Lawrence, and Rasch, Philip J. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1038/ncomms9657.
Yoon, Jin -Ho, Wang, S. -Y. Simon, Gillies, Robert R., Kravitz, Benjamin S., Hipps, Lawrence, & Rasch, Philip J. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9657
Yoon, Jin -Ho, Wang, S. -Y. Simon, Gillies, Robert R., Kravitz, Benjamin S., Hipps, Lawrence, and Rasch, Philip J. Wed .
"Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9657. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1229998.
@article{osti_1229998,
title = {Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming},
author = {Yoon, Jin -Ho and Wang, S. -Y. Simon and Gillies, Robert R. and Kravitz, Benjamin S. and Hipps, Lawrence and Rasch, Philip J.},
abstractNote = {California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms9657},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 4,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Oct 21 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Oct 21 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Drought under global warming: a review: Drought under global warming
journal, October 2010
- Dai, Aiguo
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
journal, August 2012
- Dai, Aiguo
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity
journal, August 2006
- Westerling, A. L.
- Science, Vol. 313, Issue 5789
Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013-2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint: DIAGNOSING CALIFORNIA DROUGHT 2013-14
journal, May 2014
- Wang, S. -Y.; Hipps, Lawrence; Gillies, Robert R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 9
California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble
journal, September 2013
- Neelin, J. David; Langenbrunner, Baird; Meyerson, Joyce E.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 17
Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios
journal, February 2007
- Maurer, Edwin P.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 82, Issue 3-4
Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling
journal, March 2012
- Pierce, David W.; Das, Tapash; Cayan, Daniel R.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 3-4
A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models: PRECIPITATION AND GLOBAL WARMING
journal, June 2013
- Lau, William K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 12
North American Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
journal, December 1986
- Ropelewski, C. F.; Halpert, M. S.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 114, Issue 12
Tropical Influences on California Precipitation
journal, March 1998
- Mo, Kingtse C.; Higgins, R. Wayne
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 11, Issue 3
The Impact of Extratropical Atmospheric Variability on ENSO: Testing the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism Using Coupled Model Experiments
journal, June 2010
- Alexander, Michael A.; Vimont, Daniel J.; Chang, Ping
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 11
Record-breaking winters and global climate change
journal, May 2014
- Palmer, T.
- Science, Vol. 344, Issue 6186
Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width
journal, March 2014
- Allen, Robert J.; Norris, Joel R.; Kovilakam, Mahesh
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 4
Interdecadal Modulation of the Impact of ENSO on Precipitation and Temperature over the United States
journal, July 2010
- Mo, Kingtse C.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 13
The North American winter ‘dipole’ and extremes activity: a CMIP5 assessment: Amplification of North American dipole
journal, February 2015
- Wang, Shih-Yu Simon; Huang, Wan-Ru; Yoon, Jin-Ho
- Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 3
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño
journal, May 2010
- Collins, Mat; An, Soon-Il; Cai, Wenju
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 6
Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?
journal, January 2009
- Wittenberg, Andrew T.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 12
Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?
journal, March 2012
- Stevenson, Samantha; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Jochum, Markus
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 6
Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming
journal, January 2015
- Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Santoso, Agus
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming
journal, January 2014
- Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 2
A Statistical–Dynamical Estimate of Winter ENSO Teleconnections in a Future Climate
journal, December 2009
- Schneider, Edwin K.; Fennessy, Michael J.; Kinter, James L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 24
Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use
journal, May 2010
- Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 25
Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002–11: Is Our Capability Increasing?
journal, May 2012
- Barnston, Anthony G.; Tippett, Michael K.; L'Heureux, Michelle L.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 5
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability
journal, August 2015
- Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Are Greenhouse Gases Changing ENSO Precursors in the Western North Pacific?
journal, September 2013
- Wang, Shih-Yu; L'Heureux, Michelle; Yoon, Jin-Ho
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 17
The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
journal, December 2003
- Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 4, Issue 6
Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index
journal, February 1998
- Guttman, Nathaniel B.
- Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, Issue 1
Dynamic-Model-Based Seasonal Prediction of Meteorological Drought over the Contiguous United States
journal, April 2012
- Yoon, Jin-Ho; Mo, Kingtse; Wood, Eric F.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 13, Issue 2
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
journal, January 2011
- Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654
Bootstrap Methods for Developing Predictive Models
journal, May 2004
- Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.
- The American Statistician, Vol. 58, Issue 2
Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions During 2002–11: Is Our Capability Increasing?
journal, May 2012
- Barnston, Anthony G.; Tippett, Michael K.; L'Heureux, Michelle L.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 5
High resilience of the mycorrhizal community to prescribed seasonal burnings in eastern Mediterranean woodlands
journal, January 2021
- Livne-Luzon, Stav; Shemesh, Hagai; Osem, Yagil
- Mycorrhiza, Vol. 31, Issue 2
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
text, January 2011
- Compo, Gilbert P.; Whitaker, Jeffrey S.; Sardeshmudh, Prashant D.
- Royal Meteorological Society
Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use
journal, May 2010
- Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 25
The Relationship between California Rainfall and ENSO Events
journal, November 1989
- Schonher, T.; Nicholson, S. E.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 2, Issue 11
Works referencing / citing this record:
A tale of two California droughts: Lessons amidst record warmth and dryness in a region of complex physical and human geography: A TALE OF TWO CALIFORNIA DROUGHTS
journal, November 2015
- Swain, Daniel L.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 22
Role of ocean evaporation in California droughts and floods: OCEAN EVAPORATION AND CALIFORNIA DROUGHT
journal, June 2016
- Wei, Jiangfeng; Jin, Qinjian; Yang, Zong-Liang
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 12
Abiotic habitat thresholds for salmonid over-summer survival in intermittent streams
journal, February 2017
- Woelfle-Erskine, Cleo; Larsen, Laurel G.; Carlson, Stephanie M.
- Ecosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 2
A late Wisconsin (32-10k cal a BP) history of pluvials, droughts and vegetation in the Pacific south-west United States (Lake Elsinore, CA): CALIFORNIA'S GLACIAL HISTORY OF PLUVIALS, DROUGHTS AND VEGETATION
journal, February 2018
- Kirby, M. E.; Heusser, L.; Scholz, C.
- Journal of Quaternary Science, Vol. 33, Issue 2
Predation on oysters is inhibited by intense or chronically mild, low salinity events: Low salinity stress reduces predation
journal, September 2018
- Pusack, Timothy J.; Kimbro, David L.; White, J. Wilson
- Limnology and Oceanography, Vol. 64, Issue 1
Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?
journal, June 2018
- He, Chao; Li, Tim
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 5-6
Drought in Southern California coastal sage scrub reduces herbaceous biomass of exotic species more than native species, but exotic growth recovers quickly when drought ends
journal, February 2019
- Puritty, Chandler E.; Esch, Ellen H.; Castro, Sherlynette Pérez
- Plant Ecology, Vol. 220, Issue 2
ENSO's Changing Influence on Temperature, Precipitation, and Wildfire in a Warming Climate
journal, September 2018
- Fasullo, J. T.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Stevenson, S.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 17
Increased Variability of Thailand's Chao Phraya River Peak Season Flow and Its Association With ENSO Variability: Evidence From Tree Ring δ 18 O
journal, May 2019
- Xu, Chenxi; Buckley, Brendan M.; Promchote, Parichart
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 9
Evapotranspiration Trends (1979–2015) in the Central Valley of California, USA: Contrasting Tendencies During 1981–2007
journal, August 2018
- Szilagyi, Jozsef; Jozsa, Janos
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 8
California from drought to deluge
journal, June 2017
- Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Becker, Emily
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 7
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California
journal, April 2018
- Swain, Daniel L.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5
El Niño and La Niña induced volatility spillover effects in the U.S. soybean and water equity markets
journal, September 2018
- Jiang, Jingze; Fortenbery, T. Randall
- Applied Economics, Vol. 51, Issue 11
Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater
journal, April 2018
- Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Lo, Min-Hui
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 5
Climate change impacts on hydrological services in southern California
journal, December 2018
- Underwood, Emma C.; Hollander, Allan D.; Flint, Lorraine E.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 12
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in precipitation patterns explain population-level germination strategies in an edaphic specialist
journal, August 2016
- Torres-Martínez, Lorena; Weldy, Phillip; Levy, Morris
- Annals of Botany, Vol. 119, Issue 2
Atmospheric rivers and the mass mortality of wild oysters: insight into an extreme future?
journal, December 2016
- Cheng, Brian S.; Chang, Andrew L.; Deck, Anna
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 283, Issue 1844
El Niño/Southern Oscillation-driven rainfall pulse amplifies predation by owls on seabirds via apparent competition with mice
journal, October 2018
- Thomsen, Sarah K.; Mazurkiewicz, David M.; Stanley, Thomas R.
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 285, Issue 1889
Trophic sensitivity of invasive predator and native prey interactions: integrating environmental context and climate change
journal, October 2016
- Cheng, Brian S.; Komoroske, Lisa M.; Grosholz, Edwin D.
- Functional Ecology, Vol. 31, Issue 3
Competition reverses the response of shrub seedling mortality and growth along a soil moisture gradient
journal, April 2018
- Esch, Ellen H.; Ashbacher, Angelita C.; Kopp, Christopher W.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 106, Issue 5
The adaptive potential of plant populations in response to extreme climate events
journal, March 2019
- Torres‐Martínez, Lorena; McCarten, Niall; Emery, Nancy C.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 22, Issue 5
Transcriptomic responses to extreme low salinity among locally adapted populations of Olympia oyster ( Ostrea lurida )
journal, October 2018
- Maynard, Ashley; Bible, Jillian M.; Pespeni, Melissa H.
- Molecular Ecology, Vol. 27, Issue 21
Invasive annuals respond more negatively to drought than native species
journal, May 2019
- Valliere, Justin M.; Escobedo, Evelin B.; Bucciarelli, Gary M.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 223, Issue 3
Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California
journal, April 2016
- Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti
- Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 4
Effects of precipitation changes on switchgrass photosynthesis, growth, and biomass: A mesocosm experiment
journal, February 2018
- Hui, Dafeng; Yu, Chih-Li; Deng, Qi
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, Issue 2
North American Winter Dipole: Observed and Simulated Changes in Circulations
journal, December 2019
- Chien, Yu-Tang; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu
- Atmosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 12
Effects of ENSO on Temperature, Precipitation, and Potential Evapotranspiration of North India’s Monsoon: An Analysis of Trend and Entropy
journal, January 2019
- Tamaddun, Kazi Ali; Kalra, Ajay; Bernardez, Miguel
- Water, Vol. 11, Issue 2
Changes in Water Level Regimes in China’s Two Largest Freshwater Lakes: Characterization and Implication
journal, May 2019
- Cheng, Junxiang; Xu, Ligang; Feng, Wenjuan
- Water, Vol. 11, Issue 5
Asymmetric Response of Land Storage to ENSO Phase and Duration
journal, October 2019
- Chandanpurkar, Hrishikesh A.; Fasullo, John T.; Reager, John T.
- Water, Vol. 11, Issue 11
High Variability Is a Defining Component of Mediterranean-Climate Rivers and Their Biota
journal, January 2017
- Cid, Núria; Bonada, Núria; Carlson, Stephanie
- Water, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Effects of precipitation changes on switchgrass photosynthesis, growth, and biomass: A mesocosm experiment
journal, February 2018
- Hui, Dafeng; Yu, Chih-Li; Deng, Qi
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, Issue 2