Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region
Abstract
We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.
- Authors:
-
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1198188
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1625608
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- The Scientific World Journal (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: The Scientific World Journal (Online) Journal Volume: 2012; Journal ID: ISSN 1537-744X
- Publisher:
- Hindawi Publishing Corporation
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Barkhordarian, Armineh. Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region. United Kingdom: N. p., 2012.
Web. doi:10.1100/2012/525303.
Barkhordarian, Armineh. Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1100/2012/525303
Barkhordarian, Armineh. Sun .
"Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1100/2012/525303.
@article{osti_1198188,
title = {Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region},
author = {Barkhordarian, Armineh},
abstractNote = {We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.},
doi = {10.1100/2012/525303},
journal = {The Scientific World Journal (Online)},
number = ,
volume = 2012,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2012},
month = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2012}
}
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