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Title: Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

Abstract

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]
  1. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
  2. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  4. Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1167429
Report Number(s):
BNL-107119-2014-JA
Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277; R&D Project: 2016-BNL-EE630EECA-Budg; KP1701000
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC00112704
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 2; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Schwartz, Stephen E., Charlson, Robert J., Kahn, Ralph, and Rodhe, Henning. Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1002/2014EF000273.
Schwartz, Stephen E., Charlson, Robert J., Kahn, Ralph, & Rodhe, Henning. Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments. United States. doi:10.1002/2014EF000273.
Schwartz, Stephen E., Charlson, Robert J., Kahn, Ralph, and Rodhe, Henning. Mon . "Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments". United States. doi:10.1002/2014EF000273. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1167429.
@article{osti_1167429,
title = {Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments},
author = {Schwartz, Stephen E. and Charlson, Robert J. and Kahn, Ralph and Rodhe, Henning},
abstractNote = {Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000273},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 12,
volume = 2,
place = {United States},
year = {2014},
month = {12}
}

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