Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits

Edwards, Timothy S.

doi:10.2514/1.A33029

Title: Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits

Full Record
Other Related Research

Abstract

Normal tolerance limits are frequently used in dynamic environments specifications of aerospace systems as a method to account for aleatory variability in the environments. Upper tolerance limits, when used in this way, are computed from records of the environment and used to enforce conservatism in the specification by describing upper extreme values the environment may take in the future. Components and systems are designed to withstand these extreme loads to ensure they do not fail under normal use conditions. The degree of conservatism in the upper tolerance limits is controlled by specifying the coverage and confidence level (usually written in “coverage/confidence” form). Moreover, in high-consequence systems it is common to specify tolerance limits at 95% or 99% coverage and confidence at the 50% or 90% level. Despite the ubiquity of upper tolerance limits in the aerospace community, analysts and decision-makers frequently misinterpret their meaning. The misinterpretation extends into the standards that govern much of the acceptance and qualification of commercial and government aerospace systems. As a result, the risk of a future observation of the environment exceeding the upper tolerance limit is sometimes significantly underestimated by decision makers. This note explains the meaning of upper tolerance limits and a relatedmore »« less

Authors:

Edwards, Timothy S. ^[1]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2014

Research Org.:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

OSTI Identifier:: 1143180

Report Number(s):: SAND-2014-3537J
Journal ID: ISSN 0022-4650; 517023

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 52; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-4650

Publisher:: AIAA

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Citation Formats


                    Edwards, Timothy S. Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits.  United States: N. p., 2014. 
Web.  doi:10.2514/1.A33029.

Copy to clipboard


                    Edwards, Timothy S. Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33029

Copy to clipboard


                    Edwards, Timothy S. Wed .  
"Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33029.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1143180.

Copy to clipboard


                    
@article{osti_1143180,

  title        = {Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits},

  author       = {Edwards, Timothy S.},

  abstractNote = {Normal tolerance limits are frequently used in dynamic environments specifications of aerospace systems as a method to account for aleatory variability in the environments. Upper tolerance limits, when used in this way, are computed from records of the environment and used to enforce conservatism in the specification by describing upper extreme values the environment may take in the future. Components and systems are designed to withstand these extreme loads to ensure they do not fail under normal use conditions. The degree of conservatism in the upper tolerance limits is controlled by specifying the coverage and confidence level (usually written in “coverage/confidence” form). Moreover, in high-consequence systems it is common to specify tolerance limits at 95% or 99% coverage and confidence at the 50% or 90% level. Despite the ubiquity of upper tolerance limits in the aerospace community, analysts and decision-makers frequently misinterpret their meaning. The misinterpretation extends into the standards that govern much of the acceptance and qualification of commercial and government aerospace systems. As a result, the risk of a future observation of the environment exceeding the upper tolerance limit is sometimes significantly underestimated by decision makers. This note explains the meaning of upper tolerance limits and a related measure, the upper prediction limit. So, the objective of this work is to clarify the probability of exceeding these limits in flight so that decision-makers can better understand the risk associated with exceeding design and test levels during flight and balance the cost of design and development with that of mission failure.},

  doi          = {10.2514/1.A33029},

  journal      = {Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets},

  number       = 2,

  volume       = 52,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2014},

  month        = {Wed Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2014}

}

Copy to clipboard

Journal Article:

Free Publicly Available Full Text

Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Publisher's Version of Record

https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33029

Other availability

Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 2 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Export Metadata

Save to My Library

Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections:

Method for Implementing Subsurface Solid Derived Concentration Guideline Levels (DCGL) - 12331

Conference Lively, J. W.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and other federal agencies currently approve the Multi-Agency Radiation Site Survey and Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) as guidance for licensees who are conducting final radiological status surveys in support of decommissioning. MARSSIM provides a method to demonstrate compliance with the applicable regulation by comparing residual radioactivity in surface soils with derived concentration guideline levels (DCGLs), but specifically discounts its applicability to subsurface soils. Many sites and facilities undergoing decommissioning contain subsurface soils that are potentially impacted by radiological constituents. In the absence of specific guidance designed to address the derivation of subsurface soil DCGLs andmore »« less
Conditional uncertainty analysis and implications for decision making: The case of WIPP

Journal Article Pate-Cornell, M E - Risk Analysis

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. both types of resultsmore »« less
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007030913871
Sources of Conservatism in Making Corrective Action Decisions at the NNSS - 20477

Conference Kidman, Lynn ; Knop, Matthew

During the course of closing nuclear testing release sites at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) under the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) using the Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) evaluation process, conservative assumptions and estimates were used in many phases of the work. These assumptions and estimates were agreed to during Data Quality Objective (DQO) meetings and published in the FFACO documents. However, the potential cumulative effect of these multiple sources of conservatism was not evaluated. The RBCA process ensures that corrective action decisions minimize the risk of making Type I errors (not applying corrective action to areasmore »« less
Restoring public trust while tearing down site in rural Ohio

Conference Schneider, Jerry ; Wagner, Jeffrey ; Connell, Judy

In the mid-1980's, the impact of three decades of uranium processing near rural Fernald, Ohio, 18 miles northwest of Cincinnati, became the centre of national public controversy. When a series of incidents at the uranium foundry brought to light the years of contamination to the environment and surrounding farmland communities, local citizens' groups united and demanded a role in determining the plans for cleaning up the site. One citizens' group, Fernald Residents for Environmental Safety and Health (FRESH), formed in 1984 following reports that nearly 300 pounds of enriched uranium oxide had been released from a dust-collector system, and threemore »« less
Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

Technical Report Schirmacher, Michael R.

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s),more »« less
https://doi.org/10.2172/1605929

Full Text Available

Similar Records